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The BlackBull Bulletin 29/01/18 - 02/02/18

The Week in Review:

The USD has been up and down this week after conflicting statements came from the United States Secretary of the Treasury, Steven Mnuchin, and President Donald Trump. Mnuchin stated that he wanted a weaker dollar that would suit the U.S’ trade ambitions, while Trump later stated that a strong dollar would be a reflection of a strong economy and that Mnuchin’s comment was taken out of context. This caused the dollar to rebound from 3-year lows.

 

The Bank of Japan has held interest rates steady this week at -0.10%. The BOJ stated that they will be continuing with “quantitative and qualitative monetary easing with yield curve control”, for as long as it is necessary, in order to achieve its 2% inflation target.

 

The ECB has also held interest rates steady and the EUR hit $1.25 against the USD. This is a high not seen since 2015. The ECB does not expect to change rates in 2018.

 

Economic Outlook 29/01/18 – 01/02/18                                   All Times GMT+0

Monday 29/01/18

13:30  The U.S Bureau of Economic Analysis is set to release their latest figure for the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure in December. This is the average amount of money that consumers spend within a month and is a key indicator of inflation. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

21:45  Trade figures, including Imports, Exports and the Trade Balance for December are to be released by Stats NZ. These figures will provide an overview of the demand that New Zealand has for international goods and vice versa. An increase in the current deficit is likely to be bearish for the NZD.

 

23:30  METI will be releasing the latest figure for the Unemployment Rate in December. This figure is a key indicator of the strength of the labour market; a large part of the Japanese economy. An increase over the expected figure is likely to be bearish for the JPY.

 

Tuesday 30/01/18

10:00  The Business Climate Indicator for January is set to be released by the European Commission. This is based on monthly surveys that provide insight into the state of business within the euro area. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the EUR.

 

14:00  Standard & Poor’s is set to release their latest figure for the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Index. This represents the change in the residential real estate market across the U.S and is a strong indicator of the strength of the housing market. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

Wednesday 31/01/18

00:30  The RBA will be releasing their latest figure for the Consumer Price Index in Q4. This is a measure of the change in the price of a ‘basket of goods’ and is a key indicator of inflation and consumer spending. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the AUD.

 

10:00  The Unemployment Rate for December is set to be released by Eurostat. This is a key figure in terms of the labour market in the E.U and a high reading is likely to be bearish for the EUR.

 

19:00  The Federal Reserve will meet this week to provide their latest Interest Rate Decision along with a statement on monetary policy. While rate hikes are expected this year, it may be too early for the Fed to begin hiking rates just yet. The tone of the monetary policy statement is likely to affect markets the most. A hawkish tone will likely be bullish for the USD.

 

Thursday 01/02/18

13:30  The latest Initial Jobless Claims figure is set to be released by the U.S Department of Labor. This figure represents the number of people who have filed for first-time claims of state unemployment insurance and is a strong measure of strength in the labour market. A low figure is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

15:00  The Institute for Supply Management is set to release their ISM Manufacturing PMI for January. This figure provides an overview of business conditions in the U.S manufacturing sector and is a key indicator of the overall economic condition of the U.S. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

Friday 02/02/18

13:30  The U.S Department of Labor is set to release their latest figure for Nonfarm Payrolls in January. This figure represents all jobs that have been created in non-agricultural business. A high reading is generally bullish for the USD.

 

13:30  Januarys Unemployment Rate is also set to be released by the U.S Department of Labor. This is a key indicator of the strength of the labour market and a decrease of the current 4.1% would likely be bullish for the USD.

 

18:00  The latest update of the Baker Hughes Rig Count will be released, providing an insight into the supply of oil via active rigs. This has count represents rigs exclusively used for oil.