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Based out of Auckland, New Zealand, we bring an institutional trading experience to the retail market.
Mark O' Donnell
 · 
Research Analyst
January 12, 2018
 · 

The BlackBull Bulletin 15/01/18 - 19/01/18

The Week in Review:

The EUR gained this week after Mario Draghi, Governor of the European Central Bank, said that they could revisit their communication stance in the near future. This increased expectations that the central bank’s policymakers may be prepared to reduce the monetary stimulus program. The EUR gained 0.73% to reach $1.2032 against the USD.

 

China has recorded a record high for trade surplus with the U.S, with an excess of $275.81 billion. This is an increase over 2015's figure of $260.8 billion in 2015. The trade balance between China and the U.S is a politically charged topic. President Donald Trump has taken a firm stance on trade deals across the globe and maintained that he will be tougher with countries that are using unfair practices.

 

Non-farm payroll figures for December came in at 148,000, below the expected 190,000. The largest gains were seen in the healthcare, construction, and manufacturing sectors, while retail, surprisingly, lost 20,000 jobs, even though the holiday period is usually the busiest time of year for many retailers. Unemployment remains low at 4.1%.

 

 

Economic Outlook 15/01/18 – 19/01/18                                   All Times GMT+0

Monday 15/01/18

n/a  Banks in the U.S will be closed due to Martin Luther King’s Birthday.

 

10:00  Eurostat will be publishing their latest figures for the Trade Balance, both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted, in November. This figure represents the balance between all imports and exports within the Eurozone. A decrease in the current surplus is likely to lead to a depreciation of the EUR.

 

21:45  Electronic Card Retail Sales for December are set to be released by Stats New Zealand. This measures the total purchases made on credit, debit and store cards in New Zealand. This figure is a reliable indicator of the strength of the retail sector and consumer spending. A high figure is likely to be bullish for the NZD.

 

Tuesday 16/01/18

09:30  National Statistics will be releasing their latest figure for the Consumer Price Index in December. This figure measures changes in the price of a ‘basket of goods’ and is widely considered to be an indicator of both purchasing trends and inflation. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the GBP.

 

17:00  The head of the Swiss National Bank, Thomas J. Jordan, will be making a speech. He is expected to comment on the economy as well as potential future monetary policy directions for the SNB. A hawkish outlook from Jordan will likely be bullish for the CHF.

 

Wednesday 17/01/18

00:30  Investment Lending for Homes, in November, is set to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This figure represents the number of fixed loans provided for domestic properties. A high reading indicates strength in the Australian housing market and therefore will likely lead to an appreciation of the AUD.

 

10:00  Decembers figure for the Consumer Price Index is set to be released by Eurostat. This figure represents the change in the price of a ‘basket of goods’ and is a key indicator of both inflation and purchasing trends. An increase over the expected figure is likely to be bullish for the EUR.

 

15:00  The Bank of Canada will be releasing their latest Interest Rate Decision. This will be joined with a Rate Statement that will provide insight into the bank's decision making process and their stance on rate changes. This will also be followed by a press conference at 16:15.

 

Thursday 18/01/18

00:30  The Unemployment Rate, Participation Rate, and Fulltime Employment figures for December are set to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. These figures will provide an overview of the labour market in Australia; a large part of the economy. A strengthening in the labour market is likely to lead to an appreciation of the AUD.

 

02:00  The National Bureau of Statistics of China is set to release their latest figure for Gross Domestic Product in Q4. This figure represents the total value of all goods and services that are produced by the economy. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the CNY.

 

13:30  Initial Jobless Claims are set to be published by the U.S Department of Labor. This measurement represents the number of people that have filed for first-time state unemployment insurance. This is used as an indicator of the strength of the labour market. A large reading would likely be bearish for the USD.

 

Friday 19/01/18

n/a  The Bank of England will be releasing a Monetary Policy Statement. This will be officially released by the Monetary Policy Committee and will shed light on the policy measures that the bank is undertaking. This statement can provide clues to future monetary policy changes. If the BOE is hawkish it will likely be bullish for the GBP.

 

18:00  The latest update of the Baker Hughes Rig Count will be released, providing an insight into the supply of oil via active rigs. This has count represents rigs exclusively used for oil.

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