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The BlackBull Bulletin 08/01/18 - 12/01/18

The Week in Review:

Global markets have continued to surge, with both the Dow and FTSE hitting record highs. The Dow Jones broke the 25,000 mark for the first time and Japanese shares also hit their highest level in 26 years. This is a continuation of the bullish year that stocks had in 2017 with the Dow Jones increasing over 25% and the S&P 500 increasing every month. Primary risks for the 2018 trading year include geopolitical risk and central banks withdrawing their supportive policies too early.

 

Oil prices have fallen today due to the soaring U.S production figures that have started to reverse the 10% rally that persisted from December. Political tensions in Iran, the third largest producer in OPEC, had previously pushed prices higher, and the political protests were helping to keep oil pushing past the $60 mark.

 

Economic Outlook 08/01/18 – 12/01/18                                   All Times GMT+0

Monday 08/01/18

n/a  Banks in Japan will be closed due to Coming-of-Age Day.

 

10:00  The European Commission will be releasing a host of measures including Consumer Confidence, Economic Sentiment Indicator, and Business Climate. These indicators will provide an insight into the sentiment that both businesses and consumers have towards the economy and the business environment. High readings will likely be bullish for the EUR.

 

20:00  Consumer Credit Change for November is set to be released by the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. This figure represents the amount of money borrowed by individuals and is seen as an indicator of consumer spending and potential economic growth. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

Tuesday 09/01/18

07:00  SBD will be releasing their latest trade figures for November. This includes Imports, Exports, and Trade Balance. These figures will provide an overview of the number of goods demanded by Germany as well as the number of German goods that are demanded by the international market. An increase of the trade surplus will likely be bullish for the EUR.

 

10:00  The Unemployment Rate for November is set to be released by Eurostat. This figure represents the percentage of people who are out of work. This is a strong indicator of the strength of the labour market, a large part of the economy. A low reading is likely to be bullish for the EUR.

 

Wednesday 10/01/18

01:30  The National Bureau of Statistics of China is set to release their December figure for the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index. These figures represent the change in value for a ‘basket of goods and services’ and the average price of Chinese industrial goods, respectively. These can be strong indicators of inflation and an increase in these figures is likely to be bullish for the CNY.

 

08:00  The European Central Bank will be holding their latest Non-Monetary Policy meeting. The meeting will cover the state of the economy and business in the Euro Zone as well as looking at financial markets.

 

09:30  Industrial Production for November is set to be released by National Statistics. This measures the total output of all factories and mines in the U.K and is closely followed as an indicator of the strength of the manufacturing sector. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the GBP.

 

Thursday 11/01/18

00:30  Retail Sales for November is set to be released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics. This is a measure of the value of goods sold by retail stores and is a key indicator of consumer spending; a large part of the economy. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the AUD.

 

12:30  The ECB will be holding their Monetary Policy Meeting Accounts. These are an overview of financial, monetary and economic developments and are followed by a summary of the discussion. This release aims to inform the public about the ECB’s stance and rationale behind monetary policy changes.

 

13:30  Initial Jobless Claims are set to be released by the U.S Department of Labor. This figure represents the number of people filing for first-time state unemployment insurance. This is a keen indicator of the strength of the labour market. A low figure is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

Friday 12/01/18

13:30  The U.S Census Bureau is set to release their latest figures for Retail Sales. This figure represents the total receipts of all retail stores and is a strong measure of consumer spending. A low reading is likely to be bearish.

 

13:30  The U.S Bureau of Labor Statistics will be publishing their latest figure for the Consumer Price Index in December. This is a measure of the change in the value of a ‘basket of goods’ and is widely followed as a strong indicator of both consumer spending and inflation. A high reading is likely to be bullish.

 

18:00  The latest update of the Baker Hughes Rig Count will be released, providing an insight into the supply of oil via active rigs. This has count represents rigs exclusively used for oil.