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Mark O' Donnell
 · 
Research Analyst
February 2, 2018
 · 

The BlackBull Bulletin 05/02/18 - 09/02/18

The Week in Review:

Janet Yellen, Chair of the Federal Reserve, has given her last rate statement where she held rates steady. She is due to be replaced by J. Powell shortly, however, monetary policy is expected to remain on the same path. Despite Yellen being slightly hawkish in her statement, the USD ended slightly lower against commodity currencies.

 

The Indian Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, has presented their latest budget for the country. The budget focuses on strengthening the rural and agricultural economy within the next fiscal year. They are also expecting to reach almost 7.5% growth by the end of the fiscal year on March 31st. This budget gains increased importance due to elections looming next year.

 

 

Economic Outlook 05/02/18 – 09/02/18                                   All Times GMT+0

Monday 05/02/18

09:00  Markit Economics will be releasing their latest figure for the Markit Services PMI. This purchasing managers index provides an indicator of the economic health of the eurozone as well as providing key indicators for sales and employment. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the EUR.

 

14:45  A Markit Services Purchasing Managers Index will also be released for the U.S, capturing business conditions in that area. A high result is likely to lead to an appreciation of the USD.

 

Tuesday 06/02/18

n/a  Banks in New Zealand will be closed due to Waitangi Day.

 

00:30  Trade statistics including Imports, Exports, and the Trade Balance are set to be published by the Australia Bureau of Statistics. These figures will highlight the demand for Australian goods from other nations and vice versa. A decrease in the deficit of $628M will likely suggest an increase in demand for Australian goods, and therefore an appreciation of the AUD.

 

03:30  The Reserve Bank of Australia will be releasing their latest Interest Rate decision as well as a Rate Statement. They are widely expected to hold rates at 1.5% with inflation remaining low. The tone of their statement is likely to be the best indicator of their outlook towards rate changes in the near future.

 

13:30  The Trade Balance for the U.S will also be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This is the balance between imports and exports and currently stands at a deficit of -$50.5B. A decrease in this deficit is likely to be bullish for the USD.

 

21:45  Stats NZ will be releasing their latest figure for the Unemployment Rate in New Zealand. This figure shows the rate of unemployment among the labour force of the country and is a key indicator of the strength of the labour market; a large part of the economy. A high reading is likely to be bearish for the NZD.

 

Wednesday 07/02/18

08:00  The European Central Bank is set to hold a Non-Monetary Policy meeting. This will discuss the economy, business and the financial health of the eurozone. An optimistic outlook may lead to an appreciation of the EUR.

 

21:00  The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be releasing their latest Interest Rate Decision. They are widely expected to hold at 1.75% but a hawkish tone may lead to an appreciation of the NZD.

 

Thursday 08/02/18

02:00  Trade figures including Imports, Exports, and the Trade Balance are set to be released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China. These figures will provide an insight into the demand that the world has for Chinese-made goods and the demand that China increasingly has for international goods. An increase in the current trade surplus of $361B is likely to be bullish for the CNY.

 

12:00  The Bank of England will be announcing their latest Interest Rate Decision this week. The bank's interest rate currently stands at 0.5% and is not expected to change at this meeting. Mark Carney, Governor of the BOE, has said that future rate hikes are likely to depend on the progress of Brexit negotiations.

 

13:30  Initial Jobless Claims are set to be released by the U.S Department of Labor. This figure represents the number of people that have filed first-time claims for unemployment insurance and is a key indicator of the strength of the labour market. A larger than anticipated number could lead to a depreciation of the USD.

 

Friday 09/02/18

13:30  Statistics Canada will be releasing their latest figure for the Unemployment Rate in January. This figure represents the percentage of the labour force that is currently unemployed and is a key indicator of the strength of the labour market. A high reading is likely to be bullish for the CAD.

 

18:00  The latest update of the Baker Hughes Rig Count will be released, providing an insight into the supply of oil via active rigs. This has count represents rigs exclusively used for oil.

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