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Research Analyst

Rare Elliott Wave Formation on AUDJPY

We have been seeing a pretty normal Elliott Wave count on the AUDJPY until this morning.

After a complex Wave iv consisting of a Double Zig Zag sitting just above a 38.2% retracement of Wave ii, we started to see a move to the upside(shown with the light blue arrow). This was a good signal to indicate that Wave has now started to form.
Taking into consideration that Wave iii was well over 161.8% of Wave i, we expect to see Wave v, be a similar length to Wave i.

Wave 1 Formation.

We also noticed that Wave 1 of Wave v was a thee move to the upside then made a retracement for Wave 2 (labeled in the grey square). This made us look for an Ending Diagonal to form, which is pretty normal for a Five wave structure.
This would have also helped to keep the wave short in order for it to match Wave i

Violation of the Rules

However, this was not the case.
We soon saw Wave 3 of Wave v shoot up going way past the 100% length of Wave 1. This breaks the rules of an Ending Diagonal (Wave 3 has to be shorter than Wave 1). We now had to look for other options as our original count was now made invalid.

Our Theory

The only outcome we could find at this stage was a Leading Ending Diagonal, which is extremely unlikely as it has only been recorded once in the Dow Jones

What Followed

After our hypothesis of Wave being a Leading ending Diagonal, we saw the 5th Wave extend to over 161.8% of wave three signaling the end of our Wave 5 of Wave of Wave V and completing our Ending Diagonal.

As this pattern is so rare, we will need to keep a close eye on this to see how it develoups.

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