We have been seeing a pretty normal Elliott Wave count on the AUDJPY until this morning.
After a complex Wave iv consisting of a Double Zig Zag sitting just above a 38.2% retracement of Wave ii, we started to see a move to the upside(shown with the light blue arrow). This was a good signal to indicate that Wave v has now started to form.
Taking into consideration that Wave iii was well over 161.8% of Wave i, we expect to see Wave v, be a similar length to Wave i.
Wave 1 Formation.
We also noticed that Wave 1 of Wave v was a thee move to the upside then made a retracement for Wave 2 (labeled in the grey square). This made us look for an Ending Diagonal to form, which is pretty normal for a Five wave structure.
This would have also helped to keep the wave short in order for it to match Wave i
Violation of the Rules
However, this was not the case.
We soon saw Wave 3 of Wave v shoot up going way past the 100% length of Wave 1. This breaks the rules of an Ending Diagonal (Wave 3 has to be shorter than Wave 1). We now had to look for other options as our original count was now made invalid.
The only outcome we could find at this stage was a Leading Ending Diagonal, which is extremely unlikely as it has only been recorded once in the Dow Jones
After our hypothesis of Wave v being a Leading ending Diagonal, we saw the 5th Wave extend to over 161.8% of wave three signaling the end of our Wave 5 of Wave v of Wave V and completing our Ending Diagonal.
As this pattern is so rare, we will need to keep a close eye on this to see how it develoups.
AUDNZD - H4 Timeframe.
Rejected the double top we were looking at yesterday after a break of a flat top triangle on a lower time frame.
If we can stay below 1.08270, look for moves to 1.05700!
CADJPY, H4 Timeframe.
We are seeing that the price has started to move up to the 83.700 Price, which was the same level as the Potential Shoulder line.
Look for a Head and Shoulder pattern to form for an option to go down.
GBPAUD - H4
Has closed back inside a major Zone and has now retested the broken resistance as a support level.
If the next or the one thereafter H4 Candle can close above 1.18400 w could see a move to the upside, which has no traffic on the left.
Has broken a double Top and has now retested this previous resistance.
If we can stay above 0.73200, look for further moves upwards.
We can see that WTI recently broke a Double Top. The next candle made a strong retracement back to a small support around 61.500 a barrel.
Ideally, we want this candle to close as a strong Bullish Candle to look for further moves to the upside.
Here we can see that AUDCAD has started to move into two converging lines forming a Symmetrical Triangle.
Wait for a break of this pattern for a potential move. This could happen as we approach the UK open.
Within an Elliott Wave Cycle. Currently, it seems that we have finished Wave 2 of Wave (v) after a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of Wave 1 it made a strong move to the upside.
Using a Fibonacci Expansion, look for wave 3 to reach 100% to 161.8% of wave 1.
A strong downtrend creating a clean path back up. We can now see a Flat Top Trinagel being broken to the upside.
If it stays above 1.6200 Look for a Potential Target at about 1.67348