Four years have passed, and now we usher in a new United States President: Joe Biden. A complete U-turn from what Donald Trump stood for. Nationalism is now replaced with Progressive politics. The question arises, how will President Joe Biden’s 100-day agenda affect the markets?
President Biden is a firm believer that for the United States economy to prosper; they first need to control and eliminate the Coronavirus. He has previously described America’s Coronavirus vaccine rollout as “a dismal failure thus far” and vowed to “move heaven and earth to get people vaccinated.”
Many analysts and critics feel his frustration, as they had a whole year to prepare for a Vaccine eventuality, only for the infrastructure not to be ready once the vaccine was.
President Biden vows a goal of 100 million shots by the end of his 100 days. The market will most definitely hold him to his word. Assuming 100m citizens are vaccinated, almost 1/3 of the United States population, they would have taken a closer step to herd immunity. The effects of herd immunity will most likely be laggard – however, it will ultimately be a tailwind for equities and a possible short term tailwind for risk-off assets such as Gold.
President Biden’s $1.9 Trillion stimulus would see $1,400 direct payments to American citizens to help the American economy going again. Some of that stimulus will go to state governments to help them support their citizens.
Analysts predict the influx of money in circulation will cause inflation concerns to rise even further. This will bring the US’ total spending for the Coronavirus to 5.4 Trillion. This may push the US dollar further lower. We should see an initial push up in equities due to the confidence boost stimulus gives. However, this may already be priced in due to the Democrats’ power in the senate.
President Joe Biden promises to rejoin the World Health Organization and the Paris Climate Accord, which Donald Trump was against and withdrew from. Furthermore, President Biden plans to sign an executive order to formulate a plan to achieve a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions by 2050.
Assuming progressive politics induces global competition to American exports, we should see pure American companies, specifically manufacturing companies to suffer under this rhetoric. Furthermore, Climate Change actions may see investment flow out and legislation against non-renewable companies, making it harder for them in the future.
The first 100 days will set the tone for the Biden Presidency. What are you looking for in these 100 days?
We are 13 days away from the election. Many polls state that Biden is winning the votes – however that’s what happened in the 2016 election. With big banks citing a decline in the Dollar over a Biden win, what will happen to commodity currencies such as the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar?
The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar has had a strong comeback, up 30% from its March lows. This was due to Australian commodity prices such as copper, nickel, and iron rebounding as manufacturing restarted worldwide.
If Biden were to be re-elected, a risk to the Australian Dollar is his supposed $2 Trillion push for a greener future, pushing initiatives that would create the opportunity cost for using cheap power sources such as oil and coal as supposed to greener alternatives such as solar and wind, lower. A report by BloombergNEF showed that the “Levelized cost of electricity for onshore wind projects has fallen 9% to $44 megawatt-hour since the second half of last year… with solar [declining] 4% to $50 a megawatt-hour”. They also cite that prices are lower in countries such as the United States, China, and Brazil, and that “Best in class solar and wind projects will be pushing below $20 per megawatt-hour this side of 2030”. This is not good for commodity currencies such as the Australian Dollar and the Canadian Dollar, as they are notoriously known to sell off when green policies are enacted.
Therefore, it is likely that the Australian Dollar will sell off if Biden is elected. Given a predicted selloff too in a US dollar, we may see the pair make a violent move to the downside. Near the end of September, we saw a selloff in the pair, retesting that healthy 0.7 support level. The AUD/USD has been ranging ever since between the 0.7 and the 0.725 marks. However, a Biden win may see the currency pair down to 0.6925, a historically strong support/resistance level, and a full Fibonacci retracement from 0.74 to 0.6925.
Are you looking at the Australian Dollar?
The first debate between President Democrat nominee Donald Trump and Joe Biden was more of a boxing match than a debate. Insults were hurled, rules from moderator Chris Wallace were ignored. Here is a relatively descriptive summary of the questions and answers.
The first debate question was regarding the Supreme Court. Directed to President Trump, Chris Wallace asked: "Why do you think you can nominate Justice Barret to the supreme court, and where do you think Justice Barret would take the Supreme Court?"
President Trump explained why they could nominate Justice Barret stated that "..simply – We won the election." Biden's rebuttal was that the "American people have a right to have a say in who the Supreme Court nominee is, and that can't happen right now as we are in the middle of the election." Biden continues, stating that Trump wants Barret in the Supreme Court so that Trump can repeal the Affordable Care Act. They go back and forth arguing about healthcare – on a question based on the Supreme court Nominee.
The second debate question was regarding Covid-19. Directed to Both candidates, Wallace asked: "based on what you have said and done so far, and what you have said you would do starting 2021, why should the American people trust you more than your opponent to deal with this public health crisis going forward?" Biden starts, with "two minutes, uninterrupted."
Senator Biden went straight to the point and user statistics. However, the United States has 4% of the world's population but has 20% of the Coronavirus deaths. He hammers home that Trump knew about the Coronavirus since February, but "didn't tell us or give people are warning to panic the American people."
Trump interrupts multiple times in this segment, with Chris Wallace stating four times in Biden's 2 minutes that "[Biden] has two minutes." We do not hear Trump's two minutes, only his rebuttals to Biden's statements stating that "If we would have listened to [Biden], the country would have been left wide open" and that "millions would have died, not 200,000". Trump presses that the Fake news has portrayed him as have done a lousy job.
It is interesting to note that Mr. Biden continues the debate the way a regular politician debates – looking into the camera, trying to favor the American Public rather than entertaining Trump's taunts. Meanwhile, Trump tries to excite his current voter base by hurling insults and continuing with his Brash, unconventional debate style.
The third debate question regards Trump and his contradictions with government officials and top scientists regarding the vaccine's timeline.
Trump admitted that he disagrees with both Dr. Slaouci and Dr. Redfield.
However, Wallace doesn't ease up on Biden either, suggesting that they too have been instilling fear with his running mate, Senator Harris, stating that public experts quote "will be muzzled, will be suppressed."
With jabs at both sides, the debate goes on with Biden calling out Trump's rallies and no masks, while Trump calls out Biden for not having enough supporters to even start a rally.
The fourth debate question discusses the economy and the difference/relevance between Trump's "V-shape" recovery and Biden's "K-shape" recovery.
Trump's answer states that his government "built the greatest economy in history," and they had to close it down because of the "China Plague" – pointing to an increase in drugs and alcoholism because of the lockdown. Biden shot back, stating people like Trump [billionaires] have made over $300-400 Billion over the lockdown and have only focused on the market.
Biden brings up the New York Times article, which stated that Trump only paid $750 in Federal Tax.
This segues into the fifth debate question, a simple one. "Is it true you paid $750 in Federal Income Taxes?"
President Trump states, "I paid millions of dollars in taxes, millions of dollars of income tax.." however, he does not say whether or not he only paid $750 in Federal Income Tax.
Wallace continues with the economy, asking Biden about his economic plan to tax people making $400,000 a year. Biden states that it would create 7 million jobs. At this point, the argument gets derailed, with Trump eventually bringing up Hunter Biden's (Joe Biden's son) 3.5 Million donation, and what it was for. They go ham at each other, basically cutting each other off. Wallace gets annoyed.
Chris Wallace: Stop. Gentlemen, I hate to raise my voice, but why should I be different than the two of you? So here's the deal.
Joe Biden: That's a good point:
Chris Wallace: We have six segments. We have ended that segment. We're going to go to the next segment. In that segment, you each are going to have two uninterrupted moments. In those two interrupted minutes, Mr. President, you can say anything you want. I'm going to ask a question about race, but if you want to answer about something else, go ahead. But I think that the country would be better served, if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions. I'm appealing to you, sir, to do that.
President Donald Trump: Well, and him too.
Chris Wallace: Well, frankly, you've been doing more interrupting than he has
President Donald Trump: Well, that's all right, but he does plenty
Chris Wallace: Well, sir, less than-
President Donald Trump: He does plenty
Chris Wallace: No, less than you have…
The sixth debate question regards to race. Wallace asks both candidates, "Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing the country over the next four years?"
This is where it gets interesting. Biden took the typical Democratic line – racism is terrible, equity for everyone. Trump pushes on Biden, stating that Biden implemented a Crime Bill in 1994, calling them super predators. Trump steers the discussion away from race to law and order.
The second question with race. "Do you believe that there is a separate but unequal system of Justice for Blacks in this country?" Biden says yes.
The third question about race, to Trump. "Why did you remove racial sensitivity training, and do you believe that there is systemic racism in this country?"
Trump states that racial sensitivity training is "racist" and "radical" and that "[racial sensitivity training] were teaching people to hate our country." Biden calls out Trump for being racist.
Now we approach the part of the debate that has been the talking point of many news outlets. Chris Wallace asks Donald Trump: "Are you willing tonight to condemn white supremacists and miltia groups and say that they need to stand down?" – Biden and Wallace eggs Trump on. "Do it sir," says Wallace. "Say it, do it say it," Says Biden.
Donald Trump says, "Proud Boys, Stand Back and Stand by." Trump was given a silver platter to denounce white supremacist groups, and he does not. Then he continues to bash Antifa and the left.
This has excited the Proud Boys, a notorious right-wing national group. They have stated that they have seen an increase in resignations as of late, and are now putting "Stand by" on T-shirts.
Christopher Wray, Trump's own FBI director, stated that the threat comes from white supremacists, and ANTIFA is an idea, not an organization.
Trump has tried to backpedal his comments after the debate, stating that "I don't know who the Proud Boys are, you'll have to give me a definition, cause I really don't know who they are"
Trump interrupts, stating your son got 3.5m dollars from Moscow.
Chris Wallace: "Wait a minute. Mr. President, your campaign agreed to both sides would get two minute answers, uninterrupted. Well, you're a side agreed to it and why don't you observe what your campaign agreed to as a ground rule. Okay, sir?"
Again, Trump Interrupts – calling out Hunter Biden's cocaine usage.
Notice the difference between the two candidates – Trump talks about what he did. Biden primarily calls out Trump's flaws. This was consistent in the debate. When the questions were related to why [the candidate] was better than the other candidate, Trump would talk about why he was better – and Biden would talk about Trump's flaws, not about himself.
Chris Wallace continues the debate with questions regarding Climate Change plans and election fraud, and similar patterns continue in the paragraph above. They talk over each other, Donald Trump gets back on the topic of Joe Biden's son, etc. Chris Wallace finally calls it an end on the subject of election Fraud and the debate.
In terms of a debate, it was a terrible debate. However, it was interesting to see how both Trump and Biden handled the opposing candidate, knowing relatively well how each other was going to debate.
However, as a form of entertainment? I can't wait for the next one.