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We are only 20 days into 2022, and several developing events are already looking like they will become year defining. Here are 3 events that may define trading in 2022.

How hawkish will the US Federal Reserve act in response to inflation?

3 rate hikes are tentatively planned by the US Federal Reserve this year. According to Fed board members, such as Christopher Waller and Patrick Harker, 3 rate hikes is the baseline number needed to control the current level of inflation, but 4 or more hikes is definitely on the table and up for discussion if warranted.

The aggressiveness of each hike is likely to play an equally important role in trading in 2022. While 25-basis point hikes are usual for the Fed (and what is anticipated by the market), some commentators, such as Bill Ackerman, suggest that the Fed may have to double this value for its initial rate hike to help restore its institutional credibility.

The first hike is expected as early as March, but a February hike is entirely possible.

Will the Nasdaq 100 have a negative year?

Naturally, as the cost of debt increases (via the aforementioned rate hikes from the US Fed), the growth prospects of the Nasdaq 100 can be squeezed, leading to a flat or negative year for the Nasdaq 100 index.

The last time the Nasdaq 100 had a genuinely negative year was in 2008, dropping in value by 41.9%. The Nasdaq 100 fell 1.04% in 2018, but this is arguably characterised as a flat year rather than a negative year.

With at least 3 rate hikes on the cards for the US Fed, the possibility of a negative year for the index is perhaps higher than a flat year. Bolstering this sentiment is the prediction of Jamie Dimon, CEO of JP Morgan Chase (NYSE: JPM). Dimon has floated the idea that the Fed may have to resort to six or seven rate hikes to tame the 40-year high inflation that the US is currently experiencing. However, Dimon didn’t specify if he believed all these rate hikes should take place in 2022.

Can oil finally hit US $100 per barrel as predicted?

Several big banks, including Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), predict that oil could hit $100 per barrel in 2022 or 2023.

Oil is currently in a solid position, trading between US $80 and US$90 a barrel and not far off the US $100 forecast.

Without OPEC committing to any significant increase in oil output, it looks unlikely that the price of oil will fall without a demand reduction. Yet, even with the possibility of new covid variants emerging or tightening monetary policy of some nation’s central banks, OPEC is confident in predicting that oil demand will grow by 4.2 million barrels per day over 2022.

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After tanking many equities at the end of last week, the new coronavirus variant out of South Africa will likely be of primary interest to investors leading to the end of 2021. Nonetheless, the show must go on, and several vital data reports from the world’s major players are released this week.

*Please note; The author is working from UTC +13 when determining the timeline of data releases.

What Will Traders Be Watching This Week?

29 Nov – 04 Dec, 2021

Monday, November 29:

Quiet Monday.

Tuesday, November 30:

Freshly re-elected Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak (pre-recorded) on Tuesday morning. However, Powell won’t touch on US inflation, interest rates, and bond-buying issues. Investors might glean more critical information from the speeches of Fed representatives Richard Clarida (Vice-Chair), John Williams, and Michelle Bowman, who all speak Tuesday morning.

The Europeans Union’s Inflation Rate YoY for November is released Tuesday night. A rise from 4.1% the previous month to 4.5% is expected. Even so, It would be a shock for the European Central Bank to pull away from its ultra-accommodative stance in reaction.

Wednesday, December 01:

We are graced with another Fed Chair speech on Wednesday. This speech should be more closely watched than Tuesday’s.

Powell will testify before the US senate in a speech tilted Coronavirus and CARES Act. It will be interesting to see if Powell’s tone on the transitory nature of inflation has changed to match that of US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen.

Thursday, December 02:

Closing the week will be employment data from the US. First up is the US ADP Employment Change for November. ADP employment is forecast to rise by more than 500K, marking a third straight month of such rises if actualised.

Friday, December 03:

Quiet Friday.

Saturday, December 04:

The November Unemployment Rate and Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) are released early Saturday morning. A value in the Mid-500K is expected for NFP, while Unemployment is expected to fall one percentage point to 4.5%.

With employment being a more significant factor for the Fed under Powell’s tenure than previous Chairs, a solid report should help strengthen investors current understanding of the Feds position and timeline on rate hikes and tapering.

With its back up against a wall, the US Federal Reserve has pledged to begin tapering its asset purchase program. Beginning later this month, the Federal Reserve will taper the number of US Treasury Securities it purchases each month by US $10 billion and the number of Mortgage-Backed Securities by US $5 billion.

 

How did the USD react to the Federal Reserve taper announcement?

Federal Reserve DXY

By all accounts, a dreaded ‘taper tantrum’ has been avoided in the wake of the announcement. At least in relation to the forex market. Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell has been extremely careful to prime investors for this moment. For one, all hawkish commentary from the chairman has been mediated with dovish caveats. Admittedly, less senior Federal Reserve officials have done much of the leg work in hinting and out-right suggesting the need for a reduction in its purchases. Either way, the conversation surrounding tapering has been sustained for months, giving investors time to mull over the implications.

As of writing, the USD index, the DXY has crossed back over the 94.00 mark and comfortable sits 94.33, up 0.53% since the Federal Reserve’s tapering announcement.

Will the Federal Reserve continue to taper?

The Federal Reserve will still be purchasing $105 billion worth of securities, with further reductions dependent on continuing favourable economic outlook. The Federal Reserve has indicated it is considering reducing spending, month over month, moving forward. However, if economic conditions deteriorate, the spending reductions could be nullified or reversed. The Federal Reserve will be keeping an eye on inflation and the number of jobs added to the economy each month.

Inflation remains at a decade high

A significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its reduction in spending is the US inflation rate. While it is at a 13-year high, the Federal Reserve maintains that most of the inflation experienced heretofore is temporary.

Octobers inflation number is released next Wednesday. Trading Economics is forecasting a 0.1% increase in US inflation.

Up next: Non-Farm Payroll

Another significant consideration of the Federal Reserve when determining its tapering is the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP). The NFP indicates how many non-farm jobs were added to the economy in a given month. The data for the October non-farm payroll will be released tonight to great anticipation. Trading Economics is forecasting 400K jobs, while the market consensus is a little more optimistic and is forecasting 450K jobs.

The NFP has disappointed for the past two months, with actual job figures falling far short of the numbers predicted. Even so, the Federal Reserve has seen fit to begin tapering as job growth seemingly slows. Treasury Security Janet Yellen noted the US economy is still short 5 million jobs compared to pre-pandemic times, which will take the US years to recover at the current rate of job growth.

Inflation data from outside the US should pique traders interest this week. Several major economies will be reporting on actual inflation figures experienced during September 2021.

Will they match their forecasted values, or will the data follow US inflation and surprisingly creep upward?

 

Who should be watching the inflation data?

Traders of the Great British Pound, South African Rand, Euro, Canadian Dollar, and the Japanese Yen should circle these dates in their economic calendars.

 

Why does the Inflation data deserve special attention this week?

While inflation data is usually closely watched, the surprising inflation figures released in the US last week means traders should be extra vigilant with their inflation watching.
US Inflation data

Last week, the US inflation rate (September, YoY) surprised the market by beating expectations. Inflation in the US was expected to report at 5.3%, level with the rate reported in August. However, the actual figure arrived ten basis points higher (5.4%) and returned inflation to the 13-year high seen a month earlier in July 2021.

As it stands, Trading Economics is forecasting inflation in the US inflation rate (October, YoY) to rise another ten basis points to 5.5%. If inflation were to cross 5.6%, a new 30-year record would stand (US inflation Jan, YoY, 1991 was 5.7%).

Calendar Dates to Circle:

United Kingdom, GBP,
Inflation Rate YoY September

Wednesday, 7:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 3.2%
UK Inflation data

South Africa, ZAR,
Inflation Rate YoY
 September

Wednesday, 9:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 4.9%
SA Inflation data

European Union, EUR,
Inflation Rate YoY September

Wednesday, 10:00 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 3.0%
EU Inflation data

Canada, CAD,
Inflation Rate YoY September

Thursday, 1:30 am (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: 4.1%
CA Inflation data

Japan, JPY,
Inflation Rate YoY September

Friday, 12:30 pm (NZDT)
What is the forecast for Sep: -0.4%
Japan Inflation data

The Argentine Peso has lost 71% of its value against the US Dollar in the past two years. At the end of September 2019, the US Dollar / Argentine Peso (USDARS) closed at a trading price of 57.54. As we close in on the back of September 2021, the official exchange rate is now approximately 98.5 Argentine Peso per USD.

USDARS

Several factors have contributed to the Peso devaluation. Argentina's inflation rate is no doubt the primary factor. As of August 2021, consumer prices in the country have jumped 51.4% on a yearly basis. In comparison, the USD has inflated 51.6% over the past twenty years (representing a 2.11% average annual inflation rate).

Tracking The USDARS Weekly Movements

USDARS

The tight, almost indecision-less rise of the weekly candles are a suspicious feature of the USDARS chart. It suggests that maybe unnatural market forces are controlling the ARS's depreciation. It just so happens, the Central Bank of Argentina, The Banco Central de la República Argentina does manipulate the value of the ARS, directly buying and selling Peso's on the open market to help stabilise the national currency.

The Argentinian Government also has a hand in protecting the value of the ARS. For instance, it is illegal for exporters to conduct transactions in a currency other than the ARS. Similarly, reminiscent of 1970's style foreign exchange, special permission must be sought to sell pesos for foreign currency by individuals and firms in the country.

What Is The True Value Of The ARS?

To figure this out, we can consult the black market value of the Argentine Peso, the unofficial value that is beyond the control of the Banco Central de la República Argentina. As of September 2021, one USD is traded for ~190 ARS on the black market, representing a true value that is ~52% weaker than the official exchange rate. Effectively, the Argentines peso’s true market-value is half that of the official rate.

Investigating The June 2021 Anomaly In The USDARS

USDARS

A peculiar anomaly appears in the USDARS chart. It stands in stark contrast to the indecision-less candles of the many weeks before and after. A better view of this anomaly is seen in the daily charts as this anomaly occurred on one day.

On June 30, 2021, A flash crash in the USDARS saw the pair briefly trade at a low of 91.73, equalling a -4% drop from the open price of the USD. However, the pair eventually settled 0.21% higher by the end of the trading day. The Argentine Peso was only granted a short spell of good fortune.

The crash in the USDARS happened around the time of two pivotal economic events for the ARS. The first is the agreement the Argentine Government reached with the Paris Club to defer repayment of US $2 billion debt until March 2022. The deferment shored up Argentina to tackle a US $45 billion debt with a larger creditor, the IMF. The second major economic event concerning Argentina is the ending of a self-imposed full-ban on beef exports, which happens to be the country's most significant export. While a partial ban continues, the Government relaxed restrictions to China and Israel, close to the time of the crash, to maintain an amicable trade relationship with two of its largest beef buyers.

Please note, BlackBull Markets does not offer the Argentine Peso as a tradable instrument. As indicated in the article, the currency's 'official' exchange rate is controlled by the Banco Central de la República Argentina. Thus, the Argentine Peso is too high a risk of a tradable instrument. A South American currency that BlackBull Markets does offer as a tradable instrument, is the Mexican Peso.

Devising a strategy for trading the GBPUSD requires an intimate knowledge of the technical and fundamental variables that affect this fan favourite pair.

A perfect strategy is elusive for the GBPUSD, but a good or great strategy is within reach. Let's look at the technical and fundamental variables that will push and pull the GBPUSD this week and see what information we can fold into our decision making.

Technical perspective of the GBPUSD

For an in-depth analysis of the technical perspective of the GBPUSD, my colleague has graciously prepared the following video. In the video, Anish Lal discusses the weekly view for GBPUSD and important touchstones for the pair.

Fundamental perspective of the GBPUSD

Monthly Treasury Statement

The US is the first to deliver a significant report to the market. That being, the Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) at midday, Monday (Canada Central Standard Time). The MTS typically wouldn't garner more than a moderate level of interest. This month the statement takes on a new gravitas as the US moves closer to reaching its government-mandated debt ceiling. Janet Yellen, US Treasury Secretary, has already begun warning Congress about the looming US debt ceiling. She has urged lawmakers to act (i.e., raise the ceiling) sooner than later to avoid a shutdown of Federal institutions, like what occurred in the past.

We might expect Yellen to use the MTS, which is set to report a budget deficit of USD 307 billion, to stress her previously made points. Apathy from lawmakers in this regard could be a bearish intimation for the USD.

GBPUSD

UK Unemployment Rate

The UK is next out of the gate, delivering its ILO Unemployment Rate report (July) on Tuesday morning. The Unemployment Rate is a broad indicator of the health of the UK economy. In July, the rate is expected to drop from 4.7% to 4.6%.

One problem with the report is that July is already a month and a half in the past. A lot can happen in six weeks, and thus more up-to-date reports should be considered in conjunction with the ILO Unemployment Rate report.

For one, I like to look at the British Retail Consortium (BRC) Retail Sales for August or Consumer Confidence indices. The Former example, released last week, indicated that retail sales grew 1.5% in August vs an expected 3.2% growth. The retail Sales miss may mean that the UK labour stats for July might not be as favourable as expected.

US Consumer Price index

On the same day, but separated by a good fourteen hours, the US will release its Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. This CPI will be particularly interesting because of its enormous relevance to the US Federal Reserve and how it judges when it should taper its Asset Purchasing Program. The Fed has always maintained that the inflation pressure the country has seen in 2021 is transitory. Thus, the idea of tapering its spending has been put off for a great deal of time. If certain goods in the upcoming report retract in price, those that disagree with the Feds position on inflation might be convinced of its transitory nature.

UK Consumer Price Index

The UK will be delivering its own Consumer Price Index report on Tuesday midnight/ Wednesday morning. Inflation in the UK is expected to arrive at 2.9%, above the 2% threshold desired by the Bank of England (BoE).

Talk emanating from the Old Lady suggests that interest rate rises will materialise much sooner than the previously scheduled late 2022. Although we won't hear from the BoE when the CPI report is released, much can be gleaned from the report that might indicate how a change in the BoE's position regarding rate rises.

US Retail sales

Fast forward to Thursday, and we are now looking at the US Retail Sales report for August. This report should be of interest because of the huge disappointment the Non-farm payroll delivered a couple of weeks ago. Will Retail Sales take a similar path, falling far short of expectations, or will they beat the forecast and inject a little bit of optimism into the USD? Retails sales are expected to drop 0.7% for August so there is a bit of wiggle room for the actual value to report stronger than expected.

Derivatives are issued by Black Bull Group Limited. To see our full Product Disclosure Statement visit our website. Trading Derivatives is Risky.

Inflation is on everyone’s mind. Not a day goes by without Blomberg Television asking me, on one of the offices 43-inch screens right in my line of sight, if inflation across the major economies, seen thus far, is:

Inflation is not globally homogeneous, of course. Rather, it presents differently in different countries. So, with this in mind, let's review some inflation data from the major economies around the world. It will be prudent to examine the tone that the respective Central Banks around the world are projecting.

Inflation rates (YoY), as of June*, May**, Quarter 1***

US Inflation

inflation rate

Inflation in the US hit 5.4% as of June 2021, its highest value in thirteen years. 5.4% may seem impressive, but don't be fooled. Accounting for the majority of inflation are massive increases in the price of vehicles (new, but mainly used) and fuel (both up ~45% since last year), as supply constraints affect car makers globally and fuel recovers from abnormally low prices in 2020. It is almost unfair to compare fuel prices of this year to that of last year.

Moving forward, now that fuel prices are stabilsed (somewhat), a question we can ask ourselves is how long the inflation of car prices is likely to last and what hurdles may still exist that are hampering these production lines?

The big dog: US Federal Reserve

Knowing the primary catalyst of inflation is vehicles and fuel, The Fed position on inflation appears rational.

The narrative from the US Federal Reserve is that the current bout of inflation is Transitory. As in, it is not likely to stick around for too long. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has had to reiterate that this is The Fed's position repeatedly during his public appearances.

Powell has done a good job in quelling hawkish sentiment for the most part. Albeit, an unavoidably hawkish announcement from The Fed came in June when it bought forward its estimate for when the next few rate hikes could occur. This announcement was taken as Hawkish because it contrasted so much with the typical messages coming from The Fed. After all, the rate hikes are still anticipated to be more than a year away.

Canada and UK more Hawkish than The Fed

Central Banks around the world are generally echoing the sentiment of The Fed. In that, they are playing it relatively safe and trying to avoid prematurely pulling stimulus or pulling back too aggressively.

However, ultimately, the tone from the other Central Banks are a touch more hawkish than The Fed. For example, the Bank of Canada (BoC) and the Bank of England (BoE) have already begun slowing their bond-buying programs by billions each week.

The Hawkish nature of the BOC and BoE is interesting because Canada and the UK are dealing with considerably lower inflation values. Speculatively, a few reasons for their respective tone might be:

- The BoE and BoC are viewing the current bout of inflation as permanent.
- The BoE and BoC are less confident in their ability to control an unwanted level of inflation.
- Or simply, global markets are far more sensitive to announcements coming out of The Fed, and thus an extra-conservative tone must be taken by Powell and Co. Comparatively, the tones of other Central Banks are then taken as Hawkish.

Oil hitting one hundred dollars per barrel sometime in the next six months is the bullish sentiment held by many financial institutions.

Analysts expect that Oil producers will not be capable of ramping up supply in time to meet an anticipated surge in demand. Increasing supply is not a simple undertaking. It generally takes weeks or months of investment to ensure the infrastructure is in place to manage the change in supply.

The lift in demand is supposed to be driven by economies further relaxing travel and commerce restrictions in line with the rollout of their respective vaccine programs.

The shortage of supply in the face of surging demand will then push the Oil price up another USD 30 per barrel. WTI and Brent are currently in-between USD 72 and 75 per barrel, with a general momentum to the upside. The upside momentum is in line with the general optimism swirling around global markets since the world's major economies, particularly the US and the United Kingdom, reported the immense success they were having in vaccinating their populations.  

Two things could derail Oil from hitting the milestone of $100.

The major event that can derail the bullish predictions for Oil is, of course, Covid. In particular, the Delta variant spreading further afield.

The drop in price that Oil experienced over Monday trading (28/06/20201) perfectly Illustrates the power of the delta variant to affect Oil prices

The price drop followed new lockdown measures in South Africa, Australia, New Zealand, and Malaysia. Throughout Monday trading, WTI fell by 1.5%, and Brent fell by 1.9%

Combine a drop in demand with a lift in supply.

To make matters worse for the bullish predictions for the Oil price is the upcoming OPEC meeting on July 1st. The Oil-producing nations might agree to lift the number of barrels they supply.

The last time OPEC met, they were drinking the positive-optimism cool-aid being served at that time. But, in doing so, they knowingly dismissed the lacklustre data coming from the US and Eurozone and the worsening situation in India and Japan.

However, OPEC noted that they had not ruled out a negative outlook for the rest of the year in their last meeting. Therefore, we could expect a different tone from the group in the forthcoming meeting. 

Suppose OPEC continues to believe that the global economies are on their way to recovery. In that case, they might continue on their plan to lift supply, and a bullish prediction extending to $100 per barrel begins to look less likely.

The markets are (possibly) set to be as choppy this week as much as they were last week. The choppiness could materialise in the Forex market as two major Central Banks of the world take the spotlight. On Tuesday, the US Central Bank will be evaluating their response to the pandemic before members of the Senate panel on Covid aid. On Wednesday, the BoE will update the market as to its evaluation of the British economy and its monetary policy.

Tuesday is when it all begins

In his first outing since lasts week's FOMC, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will (virtually) head to Capitol Hill to address Washington politicians on Tuesday. The topic of discussion will centre on "lessons learned" regarding the Feds response to the global pandemic and its economic consequences.

Investors are currently trying to parse fact from fiction regarding what they hear from the Fed and what the market reports. Of particular concern are contradictions between the Fed's outlook for inflation, the Fed's massive money printing regime, and the rise and subsequent fall in commodity prices.

Last week's FOMC only served to increase interest in Powell's public appearances. Last week's FOMC was notable for the Fed's change in 2021 inflation projections, as well as expected long-term inflationary pressure. For example, the Fed's 2021 inflation projections rose from 2.4% to 3.4%, while it now expects two interest rate hikes by the end of 2023.

A brief reprieve is granted the USD until Thursday when we can expect to see May Orders for Durable Goods, GDP annualised (Q1), as well as the Bank Stress Test report from the Federal Reserve System.

It will be interesting to see if the USD's bullish turn last week will continue when the markets open this Monday. Further, I wonder if Powell will be drawn on any topic outside the stated reason for his Senate testimony. If he can be drawn to speak on topics outside the scope of the meeting, the USD bullishness could easily be boosted or damped by Powell's next outing.

 

GBP Forex traders: Clear your Wednesday schedule

Great Britain's FOMC equivalent is due this Wednesday. We will learn about any impending changes to The Bank of England's (BoE) monetary policy and discover any change in its stance regarding the factors affecting the GB economy.

It is unlikely that significant changes will be announced to BoE monetary policy on Wednesday. Nor is it likely that the BoE will take a hard stance on the country's economic outlook. The BoE could easily use the uncertainty created by the Government prolonging the country's lockdown, as well as and the evolution of the Delta Covid variant in the country to avoid making any changes to its projections. But, anything that indicates that the BoE will deviate from its existing monetary policy, or outlook in any economic sector will be carefully watched by the market.

Week ahead - GDP and Inflation

Last week was a bloody week in the markets, with US equities selling off on fears that the market has been overstretched. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 were down 4.52%, 3.66%, and 3.28%, respectively.

As we approach election season in the United States, traders should be looking out for changes in future policies which may whipsaw the market.

Investors and traders are heading into a turbulent start of the week, with Hong Kong/ China Tensions increasing as we get close to election season. This may incentivize countries like Australia and the United States to implement policy changes that many move the markets.

Leshgo! Here is your week ahead.

All dates are in NZDT.

Last week's equity selloff

Tuesday, 8th September – Japan GDP Growth Annualized

It has been a turbulent week for Japan, as total Coronavirus cases are starting to creep up amidst Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation. Furthermore, Typhoon Haishen just landed, causing more disruption to an already chaotic year. Analysts predict a significant drop in GDP growth by 28.6% - Brutal, considering the Japanese economy has been in the slump in the past couple of years.

Tuesday 8th and 10th September – Euro Area GDP Growth Quarter over Quarter and ECB Interest Rate Decision.

With the European bloc having a relatively collective response regarding the pandemic, individual countries have started to release specific stimulus plans. For example, France revealed a 100 billion Euro stimulus plan, the biggest than any other country in Europe. The stimulus is just under 4% of its GDP. Analysts predict a 12.1% drop in their growth rate quarter over quarter, with the ECB expected to leave rates at 0%.

Thursday, 10th September – Bank of Canada Interest rate decision

Canada has been relatively prosperous in trying to contain the Coronavirus without implementing a strict lockdown. In Quebec, the Coronavirus's epicenter earlier this year has stated that they plan to have students return to school as soon as possible. Economists predict the central bank to keep interest rates at 0.25%, with 80% of Economists surveyed by Finder expecting no rate change until 2022. Oxford Economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport stated that the Bank of Canada has signaled that they will keep the interest rates at 0.25% "until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved."

Friday, 11th September – UK GDP Year over Year

As the United Kingdom continues to grapple with the Coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists that Brexit talks should continue with no delay. The United Kingdom has recorded over 347,000 Coronavirus cases, with the UK recording the highest number of daily Coronavirus cases today since May.

Saturday, 12th August – United States Inflation Rate Year over Year

Similar to Japan, the United States has a turbulent couple of weeks ahead. With main market indices diving, traders and investors should brace for market volatility in the times ahead alongside election season getting into full swing. With the Federal Reserve pledging a new tool combatting inflation, these data figures may be too early to see whether this tool is working. However, a higher than expected figure than the market forecast of 1.2% may see Gold push higher alongside the dollar go lower.

Trade safe this week ahead.