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Trump and Biden Debate: A summary

The first debate between President Democrat nominee Donald Trump and Joe Biden was more of a boxing match than a debate. Insults were hurled, rules from moderator Chris Wallace were ignored. Here is a relatively descriptive summary of the questions and answers.

Markets Rallied but quickly sold off after the debate

First Debate Question - Supreme Court Nominee

The first debate question was regarding the Supreme Court. Directed to President Trump, Chris Wallace asked: "Why do you think you can nominate Justice Barret to the supreme court, and where do you think Justice Barret would take the Supreme Court?"

Justice Amy Coney Barrett and President Donald Trump

President Trump explained why they could nominate Justice Barret stated that "..simply – We won the election." Biden's rebuttal was that the "American people have a right to have a say in who the Supreme Court nominee is, and that can't happen right now as we are in the middle of the election." Biden continues, stating that Trump wants Barret in the Supreme Court so that Trump can repeal the Affordable Care Act. They go back and forth arguing about healthcare – on a question based on the Supreme court Nominee.

Second Debate Question - Covid-19

Coronavirus cases in the United States continues to pile up

The second debate question was regarding Covid-19. Directed to Both candidates, Wallace asked: "based on what you have said and done so far, and what you have said you would do starting 2021, why should the American people trust you more than your opponent to deal with this public health crisis going forward?" Biden starts, with "two minutes, uninterrupted."

Senator Biden went straight to the point and user statistics. However, the United States has 4% of the world's population but has 20% of the Coronavirus deaths. He hammers home that Trump knew about the Coronavirus since February, but "didn't tell us or give people are warning to panic the American people."

Trump interrupts multiple times in this segment, with Chris Wallace stating four times in Biden's 2 minutes that "[Biden] has two minutes." We do not hear Trump's two minutes, only his rebuttals to Biden's statements stating that "If we would have listened to [Biden], the country would have been left wide open" and that "millions would have died, not 200,000". Trump presses that the Fake news has portrayed him as have done a lousy job.

It is interesting to note that Mr. Biden continues the debate the way a regular politician debates – looking into the camera, trying to favor the American Public rather than entertaining Trump's taunts. Meanwhile, Trump tries to excite his current voter base by hurling insults and continuing with his Brash, unconventional debate style.

Third Debate Topic - Covid-19 Vaccine

The third debate question regards Trump and his contradictions with government officials and top scientists regarding the vaccine's timeline.

Trump admitted that he disagrees with both Dr. Slaouci and Dr. Redfield.

However, Wallace doesn't ease up on Biden either, suggesting that they too have been instilling fear with his running mate, Senator Harris, stating that public experts quote "will be muzzled, will be suppressed."

With jabs at both sides, the debate goes on with Biden calling out Trump's rallies and no masks, while Trump calls out Biden for not having enough supporters to even start a rally.

Fourth Debate Topic - Economy, V-Shape or K-Shape?

The fourth debate question discusses the economy and the difference/relevance between Trump's "V-shape" recovery and Biden's "K-shape" recovery.

Looks like a V to me...

Trump's answer states that his government "built the greatest economy in history," and they had to close it down because of the "China Plague" – pointing to an increase in drugs and alcoholism because of the lockdown. Biden shot back, stating people like Trump [billionaires] have made over $300-400 Billion over the lockdown and have only focused on the market.

Biden brings up the New York Times article, which stated that Trump only paid $750 in Federal Tax.

Fifth Debate Topic - Trump's Federal Taxes

This segues into the fifth debate question, a simple one. "Is it true you paid $750 in Federal Income Taxes?"

New York Times article stating that Trump only paid $750 in Federal Tax.

President Trump states, "I paid millions of dollars in taxes, millions of dollars of income tax.." however, he does not say whether or not he only paid $750 in Federal Income Tax.

Wallace continues with the economy, asking Biden about his economic plan to tax people making $400,000 a year. Biden states that it would create 7 million jobs. At this point, the argument gets derailed, with Trump eventually bringing up Hunter Biden's (Joe Biden's son) 3.5 Million donation, and what it was for. They go ham at each other, basically cutting each other off. Wallace gets annoyed.

Chris Wallace: Stop. Gentlemen, I hate to raise my voice, but why should I be different than the two of you? So here's the deal.

Joe Biden: That's a good point:

Chris Wallace: We have six segments. We have ended that segment. We're going to go to the next segment. In that segment, you each are going to have two uninterrupted moments. In those two interrupted minutes, Mr. President, you can say anything you want. I'm going to ask a question about race, but if you want to answer about something else, go ahead. But I think that the country would be better served, if we allowed both people to speak with fewer interruptions. I'm appealing to you, sir, to do that.

President Donald Trump: Well, and him too. 

Chris Wallace: Well, frankly, you've been doing more interrupting than he has

President Donald Trump: Well, that's all right, but he does plenty

Chris Wallace: Well, sir, less than-

President Donald Trump: He does plenty

Chris Wallace: No, less than you have…

Sixth Debate Topic - Race

The sixth debate question regards to race. Wallace asks both candidates, "Why should voters trust you rather than your opponent to deal with the race issues facing the country over the next four years?"

This is where it gets interesting. Biden took the typical Democratic line – racism is terrible, equity for everyone. Trump pushes on Biden, stating that Biden implemented a Crime Bill in 1994, calling them super predators. Trump steers the discussion away from race to law and order.

The second question with race. "Do you believe that there is a separate but unequal system of Justice for Blacks in this country?" Biden says yes.

The third question about race, to Trump. "Why did you remove racial sensitivity training, and do you believe that there is systemic racism in this country?"

Trump states that racial sensitivity training is "racist" and "radical" and that "[racial sensitivity training] were teaching people to hate our country." Biden calls out Trump for being racist.

Seventh Debate Topic - Extremist Groups

Now we approach the part of the debate that has been the talking point of many news outlets. Chris Wallace asks Donald Trump: "Are you willing tonight to condemn white supremacists and miltia groups and say that they need to stand down?" – Biden and Wallace eggs Trump on. "Do it sir," says Wallace. "Say it, do it say it," Says Biden.

Donald Trump says, "Proud Boys, Stand Back and Stand by." Trump was given a silver platter to denounce white supremacist groups, and he does not. Then he continues to bash Antifa and the left.

This has excited the Proud Boys, a notorious right-wing national group. They have stated that they have seen an increase in resignations as of late, and are now putting "Stand by" on T-shirts.

The Proud Boys getting excited after Trump tells them to "Stand back, Stand by"

Christopher Wray, Trump's own FBI director, stated that the threat comes from white supremacists, and ANTIFA is an idea, not an organization.

Trump has tried to backpedal his comments after the debate, stating that "I don't know who the Proud Boys are, you'll have to give me a definition, cause I really don't know who they are"

Final Debate Topics - Why should voters vote for you, Climate Change and Election Fraud

Trump states;

Biden Turn

Trump interrupts, stating your son got 3.5m dollars from Moscow.

Chris Wallace: "Wait a minute. Mr. President, your campaign agreed to both sides would get two minute answers, uninterrupted. Well, you're a side agreed to it and why don't you observe what your campaign agreed to as a ground rule. Okay, sir?"

Again, Trump Interrupts – calling out Hunter Biden's cocaine usage.

Notice the difference between the two candidates – Trump talks about what he did. Biden primarily calls out Trump's flaws. This was consistent in the debate. When the questions were related to why [the candidate] was better than the other candidate, Trump would talk about why he was better – and Biden would talk about Trump's flaws, not about himself.

Chris Wallace continues the debate with questions regarding Climate Change plans and election fraud, and similar patterns continue in the paragraph above. They talk over each other, Donald Trump gets back on the topic of Joe Biden's son, etc. Chris Wallace finally calls it an end on the subject of election Fraud and the debate.

In terms of a debate, it was a terrible debate. However, it was interesting to see how both Trump and Biden handled the opposing candidate, knowing relatively well how each other was going to debate.

However, as a form of entertainment? I can't wait for the next one.

Week ahead - Trump, Uncertainty and Volatility

It is officially five weeks out until the United States Election. Expect an increase in volatility in the markets as we get closer to the official election dates. It is interesting to note that New Zealand's elections will be held two weeks after the US elections – throwing an extra spanner in the works. Here is your week ahead.

Trump and Biden are set to clash it out

Dates are in NZDT.

Wednesday, 30th September – First U.S Presidential Debate

Usually hosted in front of a crowd, the Coronavirus has put this tradition on top of its head like many other in-person events. There will only be one moderator, with Joe Biden and President Donald Trump going at it for one hour. A crowd? Possibly, Possibly not. If so, it would be strictly limited. The first moderator will be Chris Wallace, the anchor of "Fox News Sunday." It is predicted that the topics will revolve around the financial record for both Trump and Biden, the Supreme Court, the Pandemic, the economy, race and violence in cities, and the election's integrity. Both candidates will have 15 minutes to answer each question. Traders and Investors should be careful trading around this time, as markets are bound to shift either direction depending on the topic in question.

Wednesday, 30th September – China's Non-Manufacturing PMI

After flattening the curve, China has set an example of how a large population deals with the Coronavirus. (I'm assuming they're not lying about their results.) This has enabled the country of almost 1.4 Billion to start restarting their economy a lot earlier than their peers. For comparison, India continues to rack up daily Coronavirus cases with a population similar to China. They currently sit at around 6m Coronavirus cases, in contrast to China's stated 85k cases. China's Non-Manufacturing PMI is set to soften, from 55.2 last month to 52.1. Look for movements in the offshore USD-CNY pair in the week ahead.

Wednesday 30th September – UK's GDP Quarter over Quarter

UK's Coronavirus cases

If there is an example of a "second wave" of the Coronavirus, The United Kingdom exemplifies it. With Prime Minister Boris Johnson forcing drastic measures to stop the Coronavirus, including forcing pubs to close at 10 pm, urging workers to work from home, and many limits regarding groups. GDP is expected to drop -20.4%, similarly in the last quarter. Boris insists that there will not be a second lockdown.

Wednesday 30th September - Europe CPI

Europe has had a relatively valiant effort with regards to the Coronavirus. Although many countries have seen spikes in cases in the past couple of weeks, government and central bank stimulus have supported the European economy as much as possible. With fears of a strengthening in the Euro slowing the recovery, it is to be seen whether the ECB or Government will weaken the Euro. The CPI is set to rise this month from 0.4% last month, to 0.7% this month.

Wednesday, 30th September and Friday 2nd October – United States GDP Q2 and Non-farm payroll

US Coronavirus cases

We talked about the United Kingdom having a second wave – it seems like the United States hasn't even finished its first one. Cases continue to pile up, with total cases at 7.1 Million. Furthermore, it looks like the President has fully put the Coronavirus on the side as he focuses on the upcoming debates and elections. Furthermore, with his tax returns being released by the New York Times, more pressure is being placed on the President to answer – diverting even more of his attention away from the mounting deaths in the United States. GDP in the second quarter is set to contract 31.7%. Furthermore, even as citizens in the United States slowly go back to work, Non-farm payrolls are set to fall from last month, with a 1.371 Million Non-Farm Payroll's previous month to an estimated 875k this month.

Friday, 2nd October – Australian Dollar Retail Sales Month over Month

Australia, too, experienced a second wave just like the United Kingdom. However, Australia's second wave was larger than the first, as the State of Victoria saw a massive spike a couple of weeks ago. This forced the state to go into a second lockdown, which brought daily numbers down to more manageable levels. Their swift control of the second wave has the Trans Tasman bubble between it and New Zealand revived, with reports stating that it could be just weeks before Australians and New Zealanders can travel to either country. Total Coronavirus Cases in Australia is 27,040, with 872 deaths. With the Australian Government provided 80% wage subsidies, Retail Sales should not take a massive hit this week ahead as citizens continue to online shop. A surprise uptick in retail sales should see a spike in the Australian Dollar against the greenback.

An exciting week ahead. Stay Safe, Trade Safe.