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USD/JPY Looking For 100?

We have seen a clear downtrend in the USD/JPY since the U.S peaked in early April. The Coronavirus saw a rush to the cash, specifically the Greenback.

However, with the financial markets roaring back to life since then, the love for the Greenback has faded. Furthermore, many Japanese investors bringing back their capital out of U.S stocks back into their home currency, the Japanese yen. This has pushed the pair lower, with it currently sitting at 106.

This contrasts with the countries' main stock index, the Nikkei 225, which has reached all-time highs touching 30,000. The last time it got close to 30,000 was in 1991, where the index touched 26,000.

If you held the Nikkei 225 from 1991 till the start of 2021, you would have been down 0.4%. In comparison, if you have held the S&P 500 from 1992 till the beginning of 2021, you would have been up around 1000%.

USD/JPY Playing Well In The Channel

USD/JPY downtrend has been following a consistent channel

We can see the USD/JPY adhering to this downwards channel diligently, with a breakout in around June. We are currently witnessing a breakout similar to that in June, and if history is a guideline for the future, we may see the pair retreat back into the channel, possibly hitting the 100 mark in the middle of March.

Japan – A Currency Manipulator?

Many Asian nations, including Japan, have been accused of manipulating their currency, specifically to the downside.

It is estimated that foreign exchange reserves held by 12 Asian nations total more than 6.5. Trillion dollars, up 500 billion to counter the effects of the Coronavirus. Asian countries buy up foreign currency using their own, flooding the market with a flush supply of their currency, pushing their currency's relative value lower. This benefits their exports, as it would be cheaper to purchase their goods in other countries – beneficial when your country is dependent on exports, and you are in the middle of a Pandemic.

This could be why there has been a steady downtrend in the U.S dollar against the Japanese Yen. We saw a steady rise from the start of 2020 in Japan's foreign currency reserves from 1.34 Trillion U.S Dollars to 1.4 Trillion U.S Dollars, an increase of 660 Billion U.S Dollars.