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Week ahead - Central banks, CPI's

With the new strain of the Coronavirus causing concern across the world, many countries that continue to battle the Coronavirus hope that the vaccine gives them a head start before the strain does any more damage. This week will also see a new President take office, Democrat Joe Biden, on the 20th January US Local time. Here is your week ahead.

President Elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated on the 20th January 2021.

Monday, 18th January – China's Retail Sales and GDP

It seems like China was on their home run. Cases were initially squashed due to their strict lockdown earlier in 2020. The vaccine's advancement last year was the final factor in cementing China's success against the virus. However, a sharp outbreak in Nangong and Shijiazhuang shows the world that no matter how well your initial response is, only continuous and strict restrictions can keep the Coronavirus out of the community. Five days ago, a plot of land in Nangong, Hebei, laid flat. Now, it has become a 1500 room hospital for Covid-19 patients.

Hospitals quickly being built in Nangong, Hebei

This may be an overreaction by the Chinese government – however, they may just be preparing for the worst. This does give a sign of what the future may hold for countries like the United Kingdom and the United States, where cases are still at record highs. With that said, GDP and Retail Sales are predicted to increase on the back of a boost in the manufacturing sector alongside consumer spending the income they saved during the past lockdown. GDP is expected to rise to 6.1% in Q4, up from 4.9% in the previous quarter. Furthermore, retail sales are predicted to grow. 5.5% in the month of December, ahead of Chinese Near Year.

Tuesday, 19th January – Germany's CPI figures

The Coronavirus situation in many countries highlights the importance of implementing a strict lockdown and following it through. The benefits of a lockdown only work if community transmission is eliminated. However, many countries apart from a small handful tried to balance economic damage alongside the Coronavirus spread, which meant deescalating Coronavirus restrictions too early, rendering the lockdown useless.

Germany's Daily Coronavirus Figures

Germany is one of the nations that deescalated too quickly, causing massive spikes in their Coronavirus figures. Their total cases now stand at 2.04 Million, with German Chancellor Angela Merkel urgently trying to rush in more stringent restrictions to dampen the virus's spread. However, the recent spike is unlikely to affect analysts' expectation of Germany's CPI,s expected to print at -0.7% for the month of December, the same as a month before.

Wednesday, 20th January – United Kingdom's CPI Figures

With just under 3.6 Million initial doses having been handed out to the UK public, the United Kingdom's dire situation looks like it's starting to make a turnaround. The daily Coronavirus rate has slowly decreased in the past couple of days - however, Britons do not seem to be adhering to lockdown and social distancing rules.

The Sea Front in Brighton, England

The third lockdown in the past 12 months, UK citizens have been seen gathering around beaches with no mask on. The UK government is banking on the vaccine to help control the virus's spread, as hospital beds continue to be filled with Coronavirus patients. The CPI is expected to rise by 0.5%, up from 0.3% a month before.

Wednesday 20th January – Bank of Canada's Interest Rate Decision

Canada seems to be avoiding the limelight – however, their Coronavirus cases are continuing to skyrocket after a semi-successful, non-strict lockdown. However, like all countries that did not eliminate community transmission, their cases soared as the latter part of 2020 approached. Coronavirus cases in Canada surpassed 700,000 yesterday.

This may well play into their interest rate decision this week ahead. With the second wave all but destroying any optimism in Canada's economic recovery, analysts predict a rate cut of less than 0.25%, currently at 0.25%. Andrew Kelvin, Chief Canada Strategist at TD Securities, stated that "The fact that the Bank of Canada has kept the door open to ( a rate cut) in the recent month hasn't gone unnoticed by markets."

Thursday, 21st and Friday 22nd January – Australia's Employment Change and Retail Sales Month over Month

The news many Australian citizens wanted to hear – "There are no remaining hotspot definitions," Federal Health Minister Greg Hunt stated at a press conference, with only one community transmission in the past couple of days. However, he warned that their not out of the woods yet, stating that "invevitably, there will be days of new cases. There will be days where there may be a requirement for Commonwealth hotspot definition to be reintroduced. But they'll be done on a the basis of that, and cases". This may indicate that Australia is finally able to start its economic recovery – alongside the implementation of the Trans-Atlantic bubble between Australia and New Zealand. Employment Change is expected to decrease from +90,000 in November to +50,000 in December.

Thursday, 21st January – Bank of Japan's Interest Rate Decision

Similar to Canada, Japan did not implement a proper lockdown. Instead, they opted for an increase in social distancing measures alongside confidence in their citizens to continue to wear face masks. Just like Canada, initial results were promising. However, as the year passed, it was evident that community transmission is inevitable if it was not thoroughly squashed out. Currently, Japan sits on 325,000 Coronavirus cases, with daily cases reaching an all-time high of 8,000 just a couple of days ago. With negative rates in Japan, monetary policy moves to the downside are rare as not to dig a hole the Bank of Japan can not come out of. Chances are, the BoJ will opt for other tools for yield control, such as asset purchases. However, analysts at Bloomberg Economics forecast the BoJ to keep rates as is not only this week ahead but for the whole year.

Busy week ahead. Trade safe, and most importantly, stay safe.

Week ahead - GDP, CPI and BoC Interest Rates

All eyes will be on the UK’s rollout of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine this week ahead, as the first western country to approve a Coronavirus vaccine starts to vaccinate front line workers. However, the NHS medical director warned the vaccine distribution would be a “marathon, not a sprint” and that it will take “many months” to vaccine everybody who needs it. Is this the beginning of the end? Here’s your week ahead.

Monday, 7th December – Japan’s GDP Quarter over Quarter

The Covid Cycle

Japan’s Coronavirus graph symbolizes the problem of loosening coronavirus restrictions when community transmission has not thoroughly be wiped out. Japan has, in essence, entered its third wave of the Coronavirus. Japan recorded over 2,497 new Coronavirus cases on Saturday, alongside 13 deaths.

Japan's Third Wave

There are over 161,618 confirmed cases in Japan. Osaka Governor Yoshimura Hirofuki stated, “It’s getting harder to provide treatment to people with serious symptoms. This is the right timing to issue a red alert. It’s a declaration of an emergency in medical care. Our first priority will be protecting life. “This is on a warning to all Osaka residents to refrain from leaving their homes for any non-essential reason until the middle of this month. Note that this is not a strict requirement.  Analysts predict a GDP quarter over quarter figure of 5%, identical to that last quarter.

Tuesday, 8th December and Thursday 10th December – Europe’s GDP Year over Year and ECB’s Interest Rate Decision

Similar to Japan, Europe paid the cost of reopening early when community transmission was not thoroughly squashed. A second wave has come all across Europe, forcing governments to place their citizens back into lockdown. The attempt to balance economic damage and human lives had backfired. Any optimism on a successful summer had disappeared. This GDP report is likely to show the effects of the premature reopening on the European economy.

Furthermore, the ECB has signaled that they are willing to provide more stimulus coming into 2021 for the European Union. Whether this comes through as further cuts or quantitative easing is unsure. However, a cut this week ahead will be less surprising after the effects of a second have on Europe.

Wednesday, 9th December – Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate decision

Unfortunately, it will sound like this article is a record on repeat. However, this is the environment around the world due to the premature lifting of restrictions. Canada did not enforce a strict lockdown; however, the government recommended citizens stay at home during the Coronavirus peak earlier this year. Initially, they were praised for their low Coronavirus cases earlier on, like Japan. However, time affirmed that this method was not effective. They’re currently at the peak of their Coronavirus daily cases, with Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam stating that it is “unknown” when Canada will reach heard immunity from the Coronavirus. Bank of Canada is set to hold interest rates at 0.25%.

Wednesday, 9th December – China’s CPI

Unlike the previous countries stated above, China went for a hard and fast tactic, restricting citizens’ movements drastically, under police supervision. This has seemed to work, with community transmission staying put in China.  With that said, China’s CPI figures are expected to come a little bit softer than the previous month, at 0% growth.

Lighter week ahead. Eyes on the vaccine rollout in the UK. Stay safe and Trade safe.

Week ahead - Central Bank speeches, CPI's

This week is relatively light regarding data coming out from countries. However, investors and traders will be focusing on one essential item – clarification on the Pfizer vaccine's efficacy and timeline. Anthony Fauci stated that the Pfizer vaccine has an "extraordinarily high degree of efficacy – more than 90%, close to 95%" and that the U.S. may begin offering the vaccine to priority groups at the end of December. This hope of a vaccine before year-end boosted risk on sentiment last week. But further clarification of the vaccine's timeline may solidify its move upwards, not to mention an additional step back to normalcy in the world.

Let's hope that the vaccine comes sooner rather than later, so we can focus on rebuilding the economy instead of listing deaths like a statistic. Here is your week ahead.

Coronavirus Cases continue to rise around the world.

Wednesday, 18th November – U.S. Retail Sales

As we put the U.S. election behind us, traders and investors' focus starts turning to the U.S. economy's health. Dubbed as the backbone of the economy, the United States consumer helped lift the economy pre-Coronavirus, helping support equities with higher valuations. The balance between households who were able to save their incomes due to lockdown and the households who could not keep their jobs became the critical question of whether the consumer will become the backbone of the United States recovery. However, with stimulus checks slowly drying up, alongside the Coronavirus worsening in the United States, analysts predict U.S. retail sales growth to slow around 0.5%.

Wednesday, 18th November – Speech form the Governor of the RBA, BoE, and the BoC

Australia
After beating a brutal second wave, Australia is on its way to a long and grueling recovery. Further supporting the recovery is the RBA cutting its interest rate from 0.25% to 0.1%. Analysts will be focusing on Governor Philip Lowe and his explanation on implementing lower rates and whether it will translate to lower retail rates. This contrasts with how New Zealand's implementation of lower rates in which they released a new tool to enable banks to lend at rates near the interest rates. AMP Capital Chief Economist Shane Oliver stated that he expects Governor Lowe to reiterate the Australian Economic Recovery as "bumpy and uneven" and that the bank stands ready to do more.

United Kingdom
There seems to be some relief with the Coronavirus situation in the United Kingdom, as the death toll is slowing. However, deaths were at around 170 in the previous couple of days, showing that the Coronavirus grapples with the struggling country. The Bank of England recently held interest rates at 0.1%. However, they decided to expand its target stock of asset purchases to around $1.2 Trillion U.S. Dollars. Vivek Paul, U.K Chief Investment Strategist at BlackRock Investment Institute\, stated that "For an economy with the headwinds of rising Covid rates, a national lockdown. And a still-uncertain outlook on Brexit, a strong monetary and fiscal policy response is essential."

Canada
Canada continues to rack up Coronavirus cases with no end in sight. Canada recorded around 5,500 new cases, an all-time high, with Dr. Theresa Tam, Canada's top doctor stating that Canada is on track for 10,000 daily Coronavirus cases if Canada is unable to rein-in the Coronavirus resurgence in the coming weeks. Dr. Tam states "Fires are burning in so many different areas and now is the time to get those under control." The Senior Deputy Governor of the Bank of Canada, Carolyn Wilkins, stated that the Coronavirus's economic "scars" could be permanent without a concerted effort from all Canadians. Canada is also set to release CPI figures year over year for October the day after, with a market consensus of a slight decrease in the growth of the CPI to 0.9%.

Thursday, 19th November – Australia's Employment and Unemployment Rates

As Australia slowly opens up their businesses alongside Australia and New Zealand borders, businesses in Australia slowly grapple with a decrease in foot traffic alongside compliance with certain Coronavirus restrictions. With women primarily bearing the brunt of job losses in the early part of Australia's recession, Shadow Minister for Future Work, Clare O'Neil stating that "a tsunami is coming for workers in predominantly male industries" Australia is set to see a 30,000 decline in employment, alongside an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.2% from 6.9% last month.

Friday, 20th November – PboC's Interest Rate decision

China has been reluctant to implement significant monetary policy changes this past year, even during the Coronavirus pandemic, opting for quantitative easing and stimulus instead. As China is relatively ahead of its recovery compared to other countries, it is seen as the first to likely exit its emergency programs, potentially increasing the offshore Yuan. However, if there were a perfect time to cut rates, it would be now as China would be better positioned to take advantage of lower rates, propelling China's recovery. My theory is that the PBoC surprisingly cuts rates this week ahead.

Eyes on the vaccine this week ahead. Stay safe and Trade safe.

NZD/CAD – Long term trends may suggest a reversal

This pair has been ranging in a consistent bound for the past seven or so years. If we have a look at a longer-term timeframe,

NZD/CAD ranging between $0.8 and $0.95 over the past 7 years

We can see that the pair has been ranging between $0.8 and $0.95, with a significant support/resistance area at 0.9. Currently, the price is just under 0.90c, at 0.899.

NZD/CAD - RBNZ comments outweighing vaccine sentiment

New Zealand has rallied on the government's consistent handling of the Coronavirus, and more recently, the RBNZ comments suggesting that negative rates are less likely to be on the table, implying a better than expected in the New Zealand recovery.

However, upbeat sentiment on a Pfizer vaccine before the end of the year has spiked a risk-on rally, especially in the Oil markets. The Canadian Dollar is known for its commodity correlation like the Australian Dollar, in which the CAD strengthens/weakens depending on the price of commodities like Oil. In the past five days, Oil has rallied over 7% on Pfizer vaccine's news. Oil rallying tends to strengthen the Canadian Dollar.

However, the Canadian Dollar has not strengthened against the NZ Dollar, with recent RBNZ's comments further strengthening the NZD. However, as we approach this significant support/resistance area, alongside further positive news on a Coronavirus vaccine before year-end, may end the Bull rally in the New Zealand dollar and heavily reject that 90c resistance level.

NZD/CAD - Canada's Coronavirus situation not helping the Loonie

There is not much news following the Coronavirus situation in Canada. However, the country has experienced a recent Coronavirus spike due to its non-essential lockdown restrictions. The government faces a similar curve to that of the United States and in Europe.

Due to this, top deputy Carolyn Wilkins from the Bank of Canada stated that the country "is likely to exit the pandemic with a lower profile for potential output, leading to a significantly diminished ability to generate goods, services, and incomes on a substantial basis." She also states that "Canada's plan to lift immigration levels will boost potential output growth overtime."

Week ahead - GDP and Inflation

Last week was a bloody week in the markets, with US equities selling off on fears that the market has been overstretched. The NASDAQ, Dow Jones, and the S&P 500 were down 4.52%, 3.66%, and 3.28%, respectively.

As we approach election season in the United States, traders should be looking out for changes in future policies which may whipsaw the market.

Investors and traders are heading into a turbulent start of the week, with Hong Kong/ China Tensions increasing as we get close to election season. This may incentivize countries like Australia and the United States to implement policy changes that many move the markets.

Leshgo! Here is your week ahead.

All dates are in NZDT.

Last week's equity selloff

Tuesday, 8th September – Japan GDP Growth Annualized

It has been a turbulent week for Japan, as total Coronavirus cases are starting to creep up amidst Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's resignation. Furthermore, Typhoon Haishen just landed, causing more disruption to an already chaotic year. Analysts predict a significant drop in GDP growth by 28.6% - Brutal, considering the Japanese economy has been in the slump in the past couple of years.

Tuesday 8th and 10th September – Euro Area GDP Growth Quarter over Quarter and ECB Interest Rate Decision.

With the European bloc having a relatively collective response regarding the pandemic, individual countries have started to release specific stimulus plans. For example, France revealed a 100 billion Euro stimulus plan, the biggest than any other country in Europe. The stimulus is just under 4% of its GDP. Analysts predict a 12.1% drop in their growth rate quarter over quarter, with the ECB expected to leave rates at 0%.

Thursday, 10th September – Bank of Canada Interest rate decision

Canada has been relatively prosperous in trying to contain the Coronavirus without implementing a strict lockdown. In Quebec, the Coronavirus's epicenter earlier this year has stated that they plan to have students return to school as soon as possible. Economists predict the central bank to keep interest rates at 0.25%, with 80% of Economists surveyed by Finder expecting no rate change until 2022. Oxford Economists Tony Stillo and Michael Davenport stated that the Bank of Canada has signaled that they will keep the interest rates at 0.25% "until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2% inflation target is sustainably achieved."

Friday, 11th September – UK GDP Year over Year

As the United Kingdom continues to grapple with the Coronavirus, Prime Minister Boris Johnson insists that Brexit talks should continue with no delay. The United Kingdom has recorded over 347,000 Coronavirus cases, with the UK recording the highest number of daily Coronavirus cases today since May.

Saturday, 12th August – United States Inflation Rate Year over Year

Similar to Japan, the United States has a turbulent couple of weeks ahead. With main market indices diving, traders and investors should brace for market volatility in the times ahead alongside election season getting into full swing. With the Federal Reserve pledging a new tool combatting inflation, these data figures may be too early to see whether this tool is working. However, a higher than expected figure than the market forecast of 1.2% may see Gold push higher alongside the dollar go lower.

Trade safe this week ahead.

Central banks! Your week ahead

Central banks, central banks, central banks. This week ahead, central bankers from all around the world will conduct their annual Jackson hole meeting in which historically they discussed the macro-environment and, of course, monetary policy. However, due to Coronavirus restrictions, they cannot meet at Jackson Hole for the first time in 40 years. Like many meetings, they will be hosting a virtual meeting, available for the public to tune into. The main focus? “Navigating the Decade Ahead: Implications for Monetary Policy” – Or put simply, Monetary policy: Coronavirus edition. Here is your week ahead.

Wednesday, 26th August – U.S. Durable goods order

The Coronavirus continues to ravage the United States, with no visible end in sight. Currently, the United States recorded 48,163 new cases today, with 1,013 deaths. It is an awesome sight (the literal meaning of awesome, as in awe-some) as the U.S. stock market continues to rally to new highs, and billionaires see their wealth surge. The U.S. Durable Goods Order figure measures the cost of orders received by manufacturers for durable goods, including vehicles and appliances. As these are significant investments, they provide a good bearing on U.S. consumers (buying a new car when you just got laid off is unlikely). Therefore a higher than expected figure should boost U.S. equities and the U.S. dollar. The previous print was at a 7.6% increase in the cost of durable goods purchased, with consensus to see that number rise only 3.6% this month. 

Thursday, 27th August – Switzerland GDP Quarter over Quarter

With just under 40,000 confirmed cases, it is fair to say that Switzerland and many nations are continuing to grapple with the fight against the Coronavirus. However, just like with many other European countries, Switzerland is experiencing a resurgence of the virus. Switzerland recorded more than 300 new Coronavirus cases on Friday just before their quarterly update on Thursday. Analysts predict a print of -8.7% decline in GDP, from a 2.6% decline in the first quarter. 

 

Thursday 27th August – Jackson hole meeting, US GDP, Fed Jerome Powell Speech and Bank of Canada’s Governor Bailey Speech

Obviously not in Jackson hole due to the Coronavirus, Central banks from all around the world will host an online meeting discussing how monetary policy will be affected in the future from the Coronavirus pandemic. For the first time in 40 years, not only will the meeting not take place at Jackson Hole, but the conference will be available for the public to watch live. Furthermore, US GDP figures alongside both Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and Governor Macklem from Bank of Canada is set to speak. There is no doubt that this will be a stormy day in the markets.

 

Friday, 28th August -BoE  Governor Bailey speech

The United Kingdom continues to record new Coronavirus cases, logging over 1,041 new cases today. Investors and traders are wary of the possibility of negative rates in the future, with Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden stating that the BoE has “further headroom” to go with regards to monetary policy. The Bank of England currently holds interest rates at 0.1% and maintained its 745 Billion asset purchase target. They predict that the U.K. economy will not return to its pre-Covid levels until the end of 2021. 

 A big week ahead with monetary policy and forecasts from top Economists and Central bankers. Trader and Investors should be wary of the speeches ahead before placing any trades this week. 

We're starting something new this week! If you prefer to listen to the articles rather than reading them, we will slowly make them available on all platforms where podcasts are supported! For now, you can listen to the article here.

 Safe trading!  

UK CPI, Japan GDP - Week ahead

There will be a week ahead post where the data being released will revolve around how well the economy chugging along, and analysts will argue whether a country has reached its peak or whether the NASDAQ is undervalued at 40 times earnings. However, this week isn't that week. Coronavirus continues to be the primary context around headlines, showing that we are still in the pandemic's neck. I have a feeling that it will be like this until real progress regarding a vaccine is achieved. Here is your week ahead.

Sunday, August 16th – GDP of Japan, Quarter over Quarter

Japan continues to post significant Coronavirus figures, with over 1,200 Saturday, topping 1,000 for the third straight day with cluster outbreaks as summer holidays begin. Initially praised for their laissez-faire regarding their quarantine strategy, i.e., has come back to bite them. However, unlike New Zealand, where they essentially forced everyone back into their homes at the slight hint of a potential outbreak, Japan continues to allow its residents outside. For example, they placed restrictions on the maximum number of spectators, concerts, professional sports, and other events – to 5,000. This has made analysts wary of Japan, considering they had low GDP growth before the Coronavirus pandemic. Analysts predict a contraction of 7.3% last quarter, at an annualized pace of 26%. A 7.3% contraction this week ahead would mark the largest GDP decline post-world war.

Tuesday, August 18th – RBA Meeting minutes, report

Like Japan, Australia was praised for its laissez-faire approach resulting in early positive results in Coronavirus cases. However, also similar to Japan, that approach has come back to bite them. Most notably in the state of Victoria, in which the Coronavirus has run rampant. Although the rate of daily increase in cases has slowed down due to the Premiere of Victoria, forcing a mandatory quarantine to all citizens, they are still recording triple-digit cases regularly. They recorded 279 new cases today, with 16 deaths. However, this is an improvement from 2 weeks ago, when they were recording jumps from 200 to 700 new cases in a day. Australia's RBA before the "second wave," took a confident approach that Australia would be capable of pulling out of the pandemic similar to New Zealand with a lower economic cost, and their monetary policy showed that. However, due to the second wave, the report being released will likely be extremely dovish and hint and further rate cuts in the future.

Wednesday, August 19th – UK CPI figures

The UK has seen its Coronavirus curve slowly rise, and that has made government officials anxious. They have recorded over 1,077 new Coronavirus cases in the pasty day, which is slightly under their 1,097 seven-day moving average. However, analysts predict CPI a small change from a 0.6% increase in the CPI to a 0.7% increase this week ahead. If the increase is larger than expected, we should see the GBP strengthen against its peers.

Wednesday, August 19th – Canada CPI Year over Year

Canada was one of the only nations to not impose a strict lockdown for its citizens and come out flattening the curve. Yesterday, Canada confirmed 237 new cases. While not entirely eliminated, the country has not experienced breakouts similar to that of Japan and Australia. Previously, the CPI was up 0.7% compared to a year ago, with analysts predicting a CPI increase of 0.2% this week ahead. With such wild variations, it is yet to be seen what the CPI is going to be. However, a rise in CPI signals a bullish stance in the Canadian dollar, with a hawkish central bank.

Thursday, August 20th – USA FOMC Minutes

The United States is not close to flattening the curve.

A staggering number: 5,565,114 Coronavirus cases, 173,080 deaths – a 6% mortality rate. The United States has not been able to flatten the curve. With an election coming up, President Donald Trump has tried to re-open the economy to boost his chances come election time. However, this has not worked. His selflessness has cost many people their lives. Usually, a market-moving event, TD Securities analysts noted that "at the July FOMC meeting, the Committee did not imitate any new policy actions, and that changes to the statement were minor." Combining this with August being a month were a lot of traders and managers take leave for their summer holidays, we should expect this to be relatively non-market moving.

As stated above, this month tends to be quite slow due to many traders, investors, and asset managers taking leave for the summer holidays. Therefore, the market should be relatively muted at this time. This may be an excellent opportunity for traders and investors to backtest their strategy or even paper trade to practice for the coming months. Many elections are coming, such as the United States and New Zealand general elections, which will cause significant market moves.

Trade safe! Have a good week ahead.

Interest rates, OPEC, Employment - Week ahead

Many “this week ahead” articles start off referencing the Coronavirus and how it is still front and center of many news and data headlines. However, we all know that, and therefore I felt that I should start this article with something more positive. A federal court of appeal has ruled against Trump and his proposed legislation to allow hunters to kill Yellowstone grizzly bears, stating that they were illegal. Yellowstone Grizzly bears are now officially protected by the Endangered Species Act once again. Here is your week ahead.

Yellowstone Grizzly Bear and its cubs

All dates are in NZDT.

Tuesday, 14th July– UK GDP YOY

As Coronavirus cases approach 300,000 and deaths 45,000, the UK remains in level three since 19th June. At level 4, social distancing measures continues but is short of the most severe level 5, which requires citizens to impose strict lockdown. With citizens roaming around, there has been a spike in Coronavirus cases, forcing multiple pubs to close again. The UK has seen a resurgence in shopping, seeing online and in-person retailers boom with consumer confidence being the strongest it has been since the lockdown. However, with Brexit being in play amidst the Coronavirus, the UK has significant headwinds to overcome before they get firmly on the road to recovery. This is on the back of the UK expected to hit Debt to GDP levels at 100%. Previous UK GDP YOY plummeted to -24.5%

Wednesday 15th July – OPEC Meeting

With oil prices double from their May lows, the cartel has done well, stabilizing prices by inducing deep cuts. At the detriment of US Shale producers, Oil prices have been fluctuating between $40 and $42 for WTI and Brent, respectively, on the back of 9.7 million barrels per day. However, as demand slowly picks up, all eyes are on Wednesday, meeting on whether the cartel decides to ease up cuts to 7.7 million barrels per day. This is a giant exercise of game theory, and it will be a challenge in balancing profitable oil prices vs. attaining market share.

Wednesday 15th July – Bank of Japan Interest Rate decision

Japan has reported just over 21,500 Coronavirus cases and only under 1,000 deaths. With a debt to GDP ratio of 235%, Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda sees interest rates remaining low for the foreseeable future. He stated, “whether it’s the fiscal year 2021 or 2022, I do feel we’re a long way from a situation where we can raise rates.” This is on the bank of the BoJ, increasing their support up to $1 Trillion. Analysts predict interest rates to stay at -0.1% this week ahead.

Thursday 16th July – Australia’s Employment and Unemployment rate

With Melbourne re-entering a six lockdown after the city reporting 191 new Coronavirus cases, criticism on how Australia is handling post lockdown Coronavirus is heightening. With the state of Victoria contributing 24% of Australia’s GDP in 2019, a second lockdown may be detrimental to Australia’s economy and recovery. IBISWorld has stated that “the overall recovery of the Australian Economy is expected to be significantly hindered by the second lockdown.” Analyst predict a job gain of 112,500 and an increase in the unemployment rate to 7.4%, from 7.1%.

Thursday 16th July – Bank of Canada Interest rate decision

Coronavirus cases stand at 108,000, with 8,783 in Canada. With one of the only countries not imposing a mandatory lockdown, Canada has fared relatively better than its border country, the United States. With Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem ruling out negative rates, eyes are on the BoC as analysts predict them being one of the only Central Banks to raise interest rates. Analysts forecast a 50% chance of a rate hike in 2022. However, analysts predict the BoC to keep prices at 0.25% on Thursday this week ahead.

Thursday, 16th July - ECB Interest Rates

As European countries such as Italy and Spain slowly opening their borders to other European countries, the Central bank is in no rush to increase interest rates like their Canadian counterparts. They state that the “Coronavirus crisis is having serious humanitarian and economic consequences” and a “decline in economic activity of almost 9% in the Euro Area in 2020, and around 7% in Germany.” They also state that the economic effects will reach “far beyond the current year.” Analysts predict the Central Bank to keep rates at 0% this week ahead.

Saturday, 18th July – Euro Meeting on Common Recovery Plan

With a proposed €750 Billion recovery package funded by extensive debt, poorer European Countries are hoping to get a lifeline from richer countries as the Coronavirus ravages the continent both physically and economically. This €750b recovery package is on top of a proposed cut to the continents budge to €1.07 Trillion from 1.1 Trillion.

Key earnings are set to be released this week, with banks being the headline

In such turbulent times, investors and traders need to be aware of key news events this week ahead to enter and exit investments/trades at reasonable levels.