Why was there such a sharp decline in the price of silver in the second half of April and into May? And where could it potentially move next?
After taking out last year’s low just below $20.5 per ounce, silver has now slowly, but surely, retraced slightly higher. Now the price of XAGUSD is settled for the time being. Over the past few weeks, the price of silver has settled around $22.0 per ounce.
Looking at the weekly chart we have two indicators; the Williams Alligator and a Money Flow Index (MFI).
With the Money Flow Index, we see divergence take place with the most recent highs marked out with the blue trend line. While price has played out well with this sharp decline, the MFI is suggesting uncertainty. While there is still plenty of room for more downside, it may be reasonable to expect price the price to consolidate further with the Money Flow Index sitting exactly at the equilibrium.
The Williams Alligator uses the intersection of the moving average lines to help identify a trend. In the graph below, we have recently seen the longer term lines cross over the shorter lines. This scenario suggests that the market is signaling a downturn, just as it did before the rapid decline in the price of silver at the beginning of April.
From a daily time-frame perspective, $22.5 appears to be a bridge too far for XAG if it does counter the bearish indicators above and muster some upside. A more reasonable bullish target might the closer to the 13-day moving average, at $22.2 per ounce. On the other side of the coin, downside levels to watch include $21.9 and $21.5.