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Mark O' Donnell
 · 
Research Analyst
December 7, 2020
 · 

Week ahead - GDP, CPI and BoC Interest Rates

Week ahead - GDP, CPI and BoC Interest Rates

All eyes will be on the UK’s rollout of the Pfizer-BioNtech vaccine this week ahead, as the first western country to approve a Coronavirus vaccine starts to vaccinate front line workers. However, the NHS medical director warned the vaccine distribution would be a “marathon, not a sprint” and that it will take “many months” to vaccine everybody who needs it. Is this the beginning of the end? Here’s your week ahead.

Monday, 7th December – Japan’s GDP Quarter over Quarter

The Covid Cycle

Japan’s Coronavirus graph symbolizes the problem of loosening coronavirus restrictions when community transmission has not thoroughly be wiped out. Japan has, in essence, entered its third wave of the Coronavirus. Japan recorded over 2,497 new Coronavirus cases on Saturday, alongside 13 deaths.

Japan's Third Wave

There are over 161,618 confirmed cases in Japan. Osaka Governor Yoshimura Hirofuki stated, “It’s getting harder to provide treatment to people with serious symptoms. This is the right timing to issue a red alert. It’s a declaration of an emergency in medical care. Our first priority will be protecting life. “This is on a warning to all Osaka residents to refrain from leaving their homes for any non-essential reason until the middle of this month. Note that this is not a strict requirement.  Analysts predict a GDP quarter over quarter figure of 5%, identical to that last quarter.

Tuesday, 8th December and Thursday 10th December – Europe’s GDP Year over Year and ECB’s Interest Rate Decision

Similar to Japan, Europe paid the cost of reopening early when community transmission was not thoroughly squashed. A second wave has come all across Europe, forcing governments to place their citizens back into lockdown. The attempt to balance economic damage and human lives had backfired. Any optimism on a successful summer had disappeared. This GDP report is likely to show the effects of the premature reopening on the European economy.

Furthermore, the ECB has signaled that they are willing to provide more stimulus coming into 2021 for the European Union. Whether this comes through as further cuts or quantitative easing is unsure. However, a cut this week ahead will be less surprising after the effects of a second have on Europe.

Wednesday, 9th December – Bank of Canada’s Interest Rate decision

Unfortunately, it will sound like this article is a record on repeat. However, this is the environment around the world due to the premature lifting of restrictions. Canada did not enforce a strict lockdown; however, the government recommended citizens stay at home during the Coronavirus peak earlier this year. Initially, they were praised for their low Coronavirus cases earlier on, like Japan. However, time affirmed that this method was not effective. They’re currently at the peak of their Coronavirus daily cases, with Canada’s Chief Public Health Officer Dr. Theresa Tam stating that it is “unknown” when Canada will reach heard immunity from the Coronavirus. Bank of Canada is set to hold interest rates at 0.25%.

Wednesday, 9th December – China’s CPI

Unlike the previous countries stated above, China went for a hard and fast tactic, restricting citizens’ movements drastically, under police supervision. This has seemed to work, with community transmission staying put in China.  With that said, China’s CPI figures are expected to come a little bit softer than the previous month, at 0% growth.

Lighter week ahead. Eyes on the vaccine rollout in the UK. Stay safe and Trade safe.

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