The USDCHF can be relatively slow-moving compared to other major forex pairs. However, we have seen some significant moves since March this year. In fact, the most recent April monthly candle was the largest bodied candle in almost seven years. Albeit April’s candle moved in the USD’s favour rather than the francs. In April, The USDCHF opened at 0.922 and closed at 0.973.
As of writing, the USD is again approaching parity with the Swiss franc, trading at 0.998. Last month, the pair was rejected at 1.001 and closed lower on the month (0.959). This movement occurred after inflation in Switzerland rose faster than expected and landed further outside the Swiss Central Bank’s (SNB) target of 0-2% per annum. With inflation in Switzerland at a 14-year high of 2.9%, the Swiss Central Bank’s rhetoric concerning interest rate hikes has ramped up. But, Switzerland still has the lowest interest rate in the world (-0.75%), and the SNB’s rhetoric has been mild and equivocal, especially compared to the US Federal Reserve. Thus the USDCHF has forced its way into parity territory in June.
A monthly time-frame analysis indicates that the pair may be able to sustain a push through this zone of resistance at parity for June and beyond.
The Coppock Curve indicator, found on the graph above, helps gauge long-term trends. When we see the Coppock Curve move above zero, it is to be interpreted as a continuing uptrend. It is not typically used on the smaller time frames because it doesn’t show accurate divergence signals.
The Coppock Curve is just below 10 on the monthly time frame, which is the highest it has been since January 2015. After which, the curve plummeted. Those familiar with forex history may know of the SMB’s decision that day. After that event, the Coppock Curve still indicated rising prices with this pair, which ultimately came true for almost the next two years.