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Mark O' Donnell
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Research Analyst
August 31, 2020
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Week ahead - Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates

Nonfarm Payroll, RBA Interest rates - Week ahead

Busy week ahead as September kicks in. As New Zealand and the United States elections slowly approach, the Coronavirus pandemic will most likely be the center focus for many parties and how they handle the post Coronavirus world. Here is your week ahead.

Nonfarm payroll this week ahead.

Tuesday, 1st September – Germany's Inflation and Unemployment rate

Like most of Europe, Germany is experiencing an uptick in cases as a reopening of Europe too early takes its toll. However, this has not stopped protesters storming the German Government building in Berlin alongside Germany's total cases ticked over 243,000. With prices of oil slowly increasing, analysts expect inflation to increase slightly by 0.1%. Furthermore, with Germany's unemployment benefit allowing unemployed citizens to claim up to 67% of their previous wage, analysts predict no change in the unemployment rate at 6.4% in the week ahead.

Tuesday, 1st September and Wednesday 2nd September – Reserve bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and Australia's Year over Year GDP.

Australia continues to fight a hard battle with the Coronavirus, after their original strategy of having no lockdown has lead to massive spikes in Melbourne, Victoria. Australia recorded 123 new cases of the Coronavirus – all in the state of Victoria. Denita Wawn, Master Builders Australia's Chief Executive, stated that "Our industry is facing a blood bath… Private sector investment is evaporating, and the government must step in to save businesses and jobs," conveying how dire the situation is in Australia. However, the Reverse Bank of Australia is expected to hold interest rates at 0.25%. Any deviation from this consensus is most likely to move the Australian dollar significantly. Furthermore, Melbourne's sustained lockdown has seen forecasts of GDP growth to drop to -5.3%, down 6.7% GDP growth of 1.4% in the previous quarter.

Tuesday 1st September – Italy's Markit PMI.

One of the country's worst-hit with the Coronavirus, Italy, has recorded over 268,000 cases with cases continue to spike, with newly registered cases yesterday just over 1,200. Italy is predicted to be one of the first to get a grant from the Bloc's 750 Billion Euro grant as it suffers from worsening GDP growth pre-Coronavirus. Italy is set to release Manufacturing PMI's to 52, slightly higher from 51.9 last month.

Tuesday 1st September – Euro core inflation rate Year over Year

Europe is currently experiencing a resurgence in Coronavirus cases as an early lifting of lockdowns just before Summer has forced a spike across Europe. However, many countries are against a second lockdown due to the Economic calamity it will bring. Analysts predict a drop in the inflation growth rate to 0.9%, down from 1.2% in July.

Non-farm payroll – Friday, 4th September

The United States continues to post daily double-digit Coronavirus cases as their total case count tops 6 Million. As elections approach in just over a month, President Donald Trump continues to let the economy open to win over voters. Non-farm payrolls are predicted to be just over 1.4 million, down from a previous 1.73 million print.

As usual, we have many critical economic events that traders need to watch out for to avoid being whipsawed by the market in the week ahead.

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