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Research Analyst

Is the AUD still a short as it heads to 73 cents?

The AUD is currently on the radar of a few account managers at BlackBull Markets. Being based in New Zealand, our closest neighbour's currency is a reasonably popular instrument to follow. News affecting the AUD will typically circulate the office quickly.

Several events are currently being tracked on the BlackBull Markets' Floor.

Corona Downunder

The ever-present influence on global markets, Covid lockdowns, are once again affecting Australian business and everyday life. New South Wales, the country's most populated region, is currently under lockdown to curb the spread of the Delta variant. Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison recently extended the length of the lockdown for another week. Reports are that authorities are struggling to contain the far more virulent strain, and stricter and lengthier lockdown measures could soon be enacted.

Technical Perspective of the AUD / USD

From a technical perspective, on the daily chart, an interesting situation is developing.

Let's look at the Fib retracement that the pair has followed since its high in February 2021.


The recent downwards trend appears to have slowed on the Daily chart but is still definitely drawing down. A brief period of consolidation formed in between the 38.2% and 61.8% Fib level. The pair is trading well below the 50.0% level and is much closer to the latter than the former.

The general market sentiment is that the AUD is still a short. At least this was the call when the AUD was closer to $0.80 per dollar. The 61.8% Fib level is the next target for the AUD bears if the short sentiment holds today. At this level, the AUD would be back in a territory below 0.73800, representing a six-month low for the AUD.

The AUDUSD enjoyed a good deal of 2020 in the zone between 61.8% and 100%. If the pair were to cross the 61.8%, it could be some time before we see some price action outside this boundary.

ASX 200 swimming upstream


The ASX 200 was an anomaly over Thursday Asian session. It was one of the few major indices that closed higher than it opened. Since this time, stocks have sold off in Europe and the US. The sell-off was particularly heavy in Europe, with the FTSE down by 1.68%, The CAC down by 2.01%, and the DAX down by 1.73%. As it stands, ASX200 futures are trading down, indicating that the Australian index will open on Friday trading approximately 40 points down or 0.67%.

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