The S&P 500 is headed for its best January since 2019, when it gained nearly 8%. So far, the market index is up ~5.0% this year, following a 19% loss last year. But this rally might have paused for the time being, as the Federal Open Market Committee begins its 2-day meeting. After which, the Federal Reserve is expected to hike its interest rate by 25 basis points. Investors will be watching carefully for any change in market sentiment regarding this forecast in the lead up to the decision. While the economy is starting to slow, US unemployment is still at 3.5% (a 50 year low) and wage growth is still strong. This means that the 25-basis-point hike is not a foregone conclusion, with 50 basis points the next likely option. Adding to the complication of forecasting the S&P 500, is the fact that more than 20% of the companies in the index are reporting quarterly earnings this week. McDonald’s, Apple, Meta Platforms, Amazon.com, and Alphabet are all set to update the market.
by BlackBull_Markets on TradingView.com
The question to ask ourselves is whether the S&P 500 has finally entered a reversal period, or is the long-term downtrend still in place? We can see that the previous week's candle closed above the downward trend line and the 200 EMA. Although, we can look at the fake outs that took place in August and December last year, when the candles closed above the 200 EMA, but this did not result in a bullish continuation.
We can use the Aroon indicator in an attempt to gain some clues to confirm if the trend to the upside is strong. Presently, the Aroon indicator registers a strong bullish signal, as the blue line is above 70% while the red line stays below 30%. Yet, a strong key resistance, marked at around the 4100.00 area, appears to be a significant problem for the S&P 500.