The latest Market Talks covering Commodities. Published exclusively on Dow Jones Newswires throughout the day.

1208 ET - LME copper prices are little changed as fears that struggling banks could weigh on U.S. growth crimp demand hopes. Three-month copper on the LME is unchanged at $8,948.50 a metric ton. Other metals edge higher with aluminum up 0.8% at $2,372 a ton and nickel rising 0.2% to $23,715 a ton. Concerns about the U.S. economy are coming up against a much brighter outlook in China. "Our base case forecast for base metals this year embeds a tension between a mild U.S. recession developing later this year and a stronger 2023 economic growth environment in China," JPMorgan says in a note to clients. (william.horner@wsj.com)

1107 ET - Commodity futures are mixed with traders keeping an eye on developments in the banking crisis after First Citizens Bancshare announces that it is buying large portions of the collapsed Silicon Valley Bank. "Wall Street continues to be very sensitive to signs of bank vulnerability in the current rising interest rate environment," says Arlan Suderman of StoneX in a note. "Those factors that impact money flow will always be a risk for the commodity markets in a world of Algos and massive fund investment." Agricultural and energy futures are mixed, while metal futures are largely lower. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

1106 ET - In reaction to speculation that Russia sees world wheat prices as too cheap, world wheat futures are turning around, including US futures on the CBOT, with the most active contract up 0.9%. "Ideas that big Russian offers and cheaper Russian prices would be a feature for a while in the world market was the driving force for the weaker prices, and price weakness could continue," Jack Scoville of Price Futures Group says in a note. "Prices are now so cheap that Russia is reportedly thinking about increasing export tariffs or halting exports for a time to rally prices." CBOT wheat futures have shed nearly 13% year to date. Most active corn futures fall 0.4% and soybeans rise 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

1001 ET - Live cattle futures on the CME are higher to begin trading this week, with the most-active contract up 0.9% early in the session. Cattle futures have been inching off of recent highs, with the continuous contract shedding over 5% since finding a multi-year high of $1.66 a pound earlier this month. This brief correction may be over soon, says AgResource in a note. "The adjustment in positioning sets the stage for the next rally in cattle futures," says the firm. Meanwhile, lean hog futures are up 1.2% in morning trading. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

0944 ET - Recent economic indicators from China suggest that its demand for metals should recover this year, offsetting cyclically weaker demand from the US, said Jefferies analyst Christopher LaFemina in a research note. China's PMIs, credit demand, mortgage lending, land sales and other indicators have all been positive for demand, LaFemina said. Iron ore and met coal should benefit from the recovery earlier in the cycle, while copper does better in the medium and long term, according to the analyst.(jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

0927 ET - Natural gas prices slide more than 5% to $2.099/mmBtu as last week's forecasts of colder-than-normal weather fail to sustain a budding rally. NatGasWeather.com notes in a report that "a comfortable US pattern is favored April 6-10 as chilly air retreats to near the Canadian border," adding that generally "temperatures across the northern US will experience highs mostly in the 30s and 50s, w/ lows of 10s to 30s for moderate demand." NatGasWeather.com com expects "a volatile week of trade," noting that April contracts expire Tuesday-Wednesday. "It's possible May'23 contracts experience negative roll yield since it's been trading nearly 15 [cents] more expensive than April'23 and could drop towards April'23 prices." (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0922 ET - Grain futures are mixed in pre-market trading to start the week, ahead of the USDA's Prospective Plantings report due out on Friday. Trade is expected to be quiet ahead of the report's release, says Doug Bergman of RCM Alternatives in a note -- adding that traders will likely "square up positions" ahead of the release. Agencies are releasing their estimates for the report, with many calling for corn acreage to rise to above 91 million acres, with soybeans at roughly 88 million acres. In pre-market trading, most-active corn futures are down 0.4%, soybeans are up 0.3%, and wheat is down 0.7%. (kirk.maltais@wsj.com; @kirkmaltais)

0918 ET - Cameco is set to receive C$300M in tax refunds from Canada's government, including C$211M of letters of credit, related to a reassessment of the 2011-13 tax years, which Scotia Capital's Orest Wowkodaw views as modestly positive for the uranium company's shares. The timing of the refund has yet to be determined, and on top of that Cameco's broader dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency continues, with the agency holding a further C$480M of the company's financial capacity related to earlier tax years. Still, Wowkodaw remains bullish on the stock, which is trading at a price to net asset value of 1.12 times versus a historical 1.38 times. (robb.stewart@wsj.com; @RobbMStewart)

0913 ET - Brazilian soybean farmers advanced in their harvesting work but remain behind last year's pace, said agricultural consultancy AgRural in a research note. As of March 23, 70% of the estimated area planted with the oilseeds had been harvested, up from 62% a week earlier but behind the 75% pace on the same date a year ago, AgRural said. Harvesting is close to finished in Mato Grosso and Rondonia states and in the final stages in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Tocantins and Sao Paulo, the consultancy said. AgRural forecasts a total soybean crop of 150.3 million metric tons for Brazil for the current season. (jeffrey.lewis@wsj.com)

0911 ET - The dollar weakens against the euro, the pound and the Swiss Franc, while strengthening versus the yen, as investors digest the banking crisis. "We are skeptical that banking stresses can continue to be priced as a large but US-only event and think that either this episode ends up as a smaller rumble or spreads further abroad," Goldman Sachs economists say in a report. They add that credit tightening is a negative factor for the greenback, even though it may substitute for interest rate increases. The USDEUR cross is slightly negative while USDGBP falls 0.2% and USDCHF loses 0.1%. USDJPY rises 0.8%. (paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0833 ET - Oil prices recover some of last week's loses, with the WTI crude gaining nearly 2% to $70.60 a barrel, as global markets start the week calmer after a nearly eventless weekend. The increase is "in line with the broader risk rally," Oanda's Craig Erlam says in a report. "It's been a volatile few weeks for crude, caught up in the banking storm as investors are forced to scale back their expectations for the economy which, in turn, has weighed heavily on demand prospects," he says. Today, Erlam sees "sentiment slowly improving."(paulo.trevisani@wsj.com; @ptrevisani)

0614 ET - Palm oil prices were higher in late Asian trading. Crude palm oil prices look near the bottom and could hold at MYR3,300 a metric ton, as Malaysia's refineries would have enough holding power to support CPO prices, says Abdul Hameed, director of sales at Pakistan-based Manzoor Trading. However, the market may be volatile this week due to mixed fundamentals, he says. There is higher demand as the Ramadan fasting month begins, but uncertainties due to the banking turmoil in the U.S. and Europe have weighed on the financial market, including commodities, he notes. The Bursa Malaysia Derivatives contract for June delivery closed MYR65 higher at MYR3,577 a ton. (yingxian.wong@wsj.com)

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

March 27, 2023 12:15 ET (16:15 GMT)

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